Table 1 Input parameters of Markov model

50–54

84.34

50.87

Beta

[21]

55–59

121.85

56.99

Beta

[21]

60–64

237.82

104.22

Beta

[21]

65–69

329.68

137.74

Beta

[21]

70–74

418.52

178.38

Beta

[21]

RR(> 30 pack-years)

3.87

Lognormal

[34]

RR(> 30 pack-years at top 5% based on PRS)

3.98

Lognormal

[17]

Proportion of lung cancer by stage

Wenling lung cancer screening program

 CIS

0.0370

Beta

 I

0.6852

Beta

 II

0.0370

Beta

 III

0.1852

Beta

 IV

0.0556

Beta

 Sensitivity of LDCT

0.79

Beta

[32]

 Specificity of LDCT

0.81

Beta

[32]

Mortality of all-cause death (%)

 50–54

0.45

Beta

Estimated [24, 27]

 55–59

0.65

Beta

Estimated [24, 27]

 60–64

1.08

Beta

Estimated [24, 27]

 65–69

1.88

Beta

Estimated [24, 27]

 70–74

3.36

Beta

Estimated [24, 27]

 75–79

5.40

Beta

Estimated [24, 27]

Lung cancer mortality rate in general population(100,000^–1)

 50–54

28.81

Beta

[28]

 55–59

52.86

Beta

[28]

 60–64

101.93

Beta

[28]

 65–69

153.34

Beta

[28]

 70–74

248.57

Beta

[28]

Transition probabilities(1 year)

 Lung cancer stage CIS to lung cancer stage I

0.0980

Beta

[25]

 Lung cancer stage I to lung cancer stage II

0.3682

Beta

[35]

 Lung cancer stage I to lung cancer stage III

0.0328

Beta

[35]

 Lung cancer stage I to lung cancer stage IV

0.0745

Beta

[35]

 Lung cancer stage II to lung cancer stage III

0.2260

Beta

[35]

 Lung cancer stage II to lung cancer stage IV

0.1510

Beta

[35]

 Lung cancer stage III to lung cancer stage IV

0.1455

Beta

[35]

 Lung cancer stage CIS to death

0

Beta

Estimated [28,29,30]

 Lung cancer stage I to death

0.1739

Beta

Estimated [28,29,30]

 Lung cancer stage II to death

0.2842

Beta

Estimated [28,29,30]

 Lung cancer stage III to death

0.4626

Beta

Estimated [28,29,30]

 Lung cancer stage IV to death

0.5880

Beta

Estimated [28,29,30]

Utility

 CIS

0.92

Beta

[36]

 I

0.92

Beta

CanSPUC data

 II

0.87

Beta

CanSPUC data

 III

0.71

Beta

CanSPUC data

 IV

0.60

Beta

CanSPUC data

 Maintenance state

0.87

Beta

[37]

 Costs(CNY)

Survey data

 Screening cost(LDCT)

245.86

Gamma

-

 Screening cost(PRS)

280.00

Gamma

-

 Pre-diagnosis cost

628.36

Gamma

-

 Biopsy diagnosis cost

1,232.44

Gamma

-

Treatment cost

 CIS

47,341.85

Gamma

-

 I

53,344.51

Gamma

-

 II

83,365.95

Gamma

-

 III

90,643.18

Gamma

-

 IV

116,471.34

Gamma

-