Fig. 4

Decision curve analysis and prediction error curves. a Decision curve analysis (DCA) for predicting 5-year overall survival (OS) in the training cohort; (b) DCA for predicting 5-year OS in the validation cohort; (c) Prediction error curves for 5-year OS prediction of four prognostic models in the training cohort; (d) Prediction error curves for 5-year OS prediction of four prognostic models in the validation cohort. Note: In Fig. 4a and b, the horizontal solid grey line represents the assumption that no patients would be dead, and the solid green line represents the assumption that all patients would be dead. The solid blue, purple, red and yellow lines indicate the net benefit using the new model, IPI, R-IPI and NCCN-IPI, respectively. In Fig. 4c and d, the grey curve represents a default benchmark Kaplan-Meier model, and the blue, purple, red and yellow curves represent the new model, IPI, R-IPI and NCCN-IPI, respectively. IPI, International Prognostic Index; R-IPI, revised International Prognostic Index; NCCN-IPI, National Comprehensive Cancer Network International Prognostic Index