Machine learning algorithms to estimate 10-Year survival in patients with bone metastases due to prostate cancer: toward a disease-specific survival estimation tool

Anderson, Ashley B.; Grazal, Clare; Wedin, Rikard; Kuo, Claire; Chen, Yongmei; Christensen, Bryce R.; Cullen, Jennifer; Forsberg, Jonathan A.

doi:10.1186/s12885-022-09491-7

Table 2 Categorical variables contained within the train and test sets

From: Machine learning algorithms to estimate 10-Year survival in patients with bone metastases due to prostate cancer: toward a disease-specific survival estimation tool

Variable by Time Point	Whole Cohort		Train Set		Test Set		P value^*	Bayes Factor
Model Features
Comorbidity	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No
1-Year	145	293	118	232	27	61	0.68	0.20
2-Year	144	286	112	232	32	54	0.49	0.26
3-Year	143	283	119	221	24	62	0.26	0.39
4-Year	139	278	115	218	24	60	0.36	0.31
5-Year	137	265	108	213	29	52	0.81	0.20
10-Year	127	246	103	195	24	51	0.78	0.21
Hormone therapy/chemotherapy
1-Year	282	156	222	128	60	28	0.48	0.25
2-Year	276	154	230	114	46	40	0.03	2.55
3-Year	272	154	217	123	55	31	> 0.99	0.19
4-Year	266	151	213	120	53	31	0.98	0.19
5-Year	260	142	208	113	52	29	> 0.99	0.19
10-Year	243	130	197	101	46	29	0.52	0.27
Treatment-naïve
1-Year	88	350	76	274	12	76	0.12	0.63
2-Year	87	343	66	278	21	65	0.35	0.28
3-Year	87	339	69	271	18	68	> 0.99	0.16
4-Year	86	331	66	267	20	64	0.51	0.23
5-Year	82	320	66	255	16	65	0.99	0.16
10-Year	77	296	60	238	17	58	0.75	0.19
Radiotherapy
1-Year	68	370	52	298	16	72	0.55	0.19
2-Year	67	363	48	296	19	67	0.09	0.76
3-Year	67	359	54	286	13	73	0.99	0.14
4-Year	65	352	54	279	11	73	0.59	0.17
5-Year	60	342	47	274	13	68	0.89	0.15
10-Year	53	320	41	257	12	63	0.76	0.17
APV of 0
1-Year	188	250	154	196	34	54	0.43	0.28
2-Year	183	247	142	202	41	45	0.34	0.34
3-Year	180	246	149	191	31	55	0.24	0.44
4-Year	176	241	144	189	32	52	0.47	0.27
5-Year	172	230	138	183	34	47	0.97	0.20
10-Year	156	217	123	175	33	42	0.77	0.22
Quick-rising APV
1-Year	111	327	86	264	25	63	0.55	0.22
2-Year	109	321	90	254	19	67	0.52	0.22
3-Year	109	317	82	258	27	59	0.21	0.44
4-Year	108	309	88	245	20	64	0.73	0.19
5-Year	106	296	87	234	19	62	0.60	0.21
10-Year	103	270	86	212	17	58	0.35	0.32
Slow-rising APV
1-Year	139	299	110	240	29	59	0.88	0.19
2-Year	138	292	112	232	26	60	0.78	0.19
3-Year	137	289	109	231	28	58	> 0.99	0.18
4-Year	133	284	101	232	32	52	0.22	0.46
5-Year	124	278	96	225	28	53	0.50	0.26
10-Year	114	259	89	209	25	50	0.66	0.23
Black
1-Year	92	346	77	273	15	73	0.38	0.25
2-Year	90	340	74	270	16	70	0.66	0.18
3-Year	90	336	65	275	25	61	0.06	1.16
4-Year	88	329	72	261	16	68	0.71	0.18
5-Year	83	219	70	251	13	68	0.32	0.30
10-Year	78	295	64	234	14	61	0.71	0.19
White or other race
1-Year	346	92	273	77	73	15	0.38	0.25
2-Year	340	90	270	74	70	16	0.66	0.18
3-Year	336	90	275	65	61	25	0.06	1.16
4-Year	329	88	261	72	68	16	0.71	0.18
5-Year	319	83	251	70	68	13	0.32	0.30
10-Year	295	78	234	64	61	14	0.71	0.19
Outcome Variable
Survival duration
1-Year	405	33	324	26	81	7	> 0.99	0.10
2-Year	330	100	264	80	66	20	> 0.99	0.16
3-Year	269	157	215	125	54	32	> 0.99	0.19
4-Year	223	194	178	155	45	39	> 0.99	0.19
5-Year	181	221	145	176	36	45	> 0.99	0.20
10-Year	71	302	57	241	14	61	> 0.99	0.16

^*P values determined using Pearson’s chi-squared test

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ISSN: 1471-2407

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