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Table 2 Scenarios for simulation

From: A new pragmatic design for dose escalation in phase 1 clinical trials using an adaptive continual reassessment method

Toxicity scenario

Type of scenario

Dose Levels

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

T1

Linear, very high

10

20

30

40

50

T2

Linear, high

10

20

25

30

40

T3

Linear, anticipated

10

15

20

25

30

T4

Linear, low

5

10

12

15

20

T5

Non-linear, variable

5

15

30

50

70

  1. 1. Rates of recruitment scenarios (R): patients recruited randomly, with two (Poisson process) arrival rates considered:
  2. a. R1: routine average arrival 1 patient per week and
  3. b. R2: accelerated average arrival rate 1.5 patients per week.
  4. 2 Toxicity occurrence scenarios (T)
  5. 3. The DLT times (for those with a DLT) were simulated using 4 timing (DT) scenarios:
  6. a. DT1: uniformly between 8 and 21 days after recruitment: most plausible based on clinical experience [16]
  7. b. DT2: uniformly between 11 and 28 days after recruitment
  8. c. DT3: at either 11 or 21 days with probabilities of 25 and 75%
  9. d. DT4: at either 11 or 21 days with probabilities 30 and 70%.
  10. Bold typeface signifies acceptable DLT to declare MTD.