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Table 3 Univariate analysis of predictors for tumor downstaging in the training and validation cohorts

From: CEA clearance pattern as a predictor of tumor response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer: a post-hoc analysis of FOWARC trial

Variable Training cohort Validation cohort
Good downstaging Poor downstaging P Good downstaging Poor downstaging P
No. of patients 20 51   26 49  
Age (mean, y ± SD) 58 ± 10 52 ± 13 0.101 54 ± 10 55 ± 13 0.630
Gender    0.671    0.701
 Male 14 (70%) 33 (65%)   11 (42%) 23 (47%)  
 Female 6 (30%) 18 (35%)   15 (58%) 26 (53%)  
Pretreatment T stage    0.009    0.125
 T2 0 0   2 (8%) 4 (8%)  
 T3 19 (95%) 33 (65%)   24 (92%) 38 (78%)  
 T4 1 (5%) 18 (35)   0 7 (14%)  
Pretreatment N stage    0.160    0.858
 N0 2 (10%) 10 (20%)   8 (31%) 13 (26%)  
 N1 12 (60%) 18 (35%)   12 (46%) 22 (45%)  
 N2 6 (30%)) 23 (45%)   6 (23%) 14 (29%)  
Tumor differentiation    0.020    0.818
 Well/Moderately 14 (70%) 20 (40%)   19 (73%) 37 (76%)  
 Poorly/Undifferentiated 6 (30%) 31 (60%)   7 (27%) 12 (24%)  
 Distance from the anal verge    0.327    0.235
5 cm 8 (40%) 27 (53%)   8 (31%) 22 (45%)  
  > 5 cm 12 (60%) 24 (47)   18 (69%) 27 (55%)  
Tumor length    0.058    0.267
4 cm 12 (60%) 18 (65%)   13 (50%) 18 (37%)  
  > 4 cm 8 (40%) 33 (35%)   13 (50%) 31 (63%)  
Circumferential extent    0.065    0.856
50% 8 (40%) 9 (18%)   9 (35%) 18 (37%)  
  > 50% 12 (60%) 42 (82%)   17 (65%) 31 (63%)  
Pre- treatment CEA level (mean, ng/mL; 95%CI) 23 (14–33) 28 (19–39) 0.551 17 (12–22) 13 (11–15) 0.066
Post- treatment CEA level (mean, ng/mL; 95%CI) 5 (0.2–9) 6 (4–8) 0.680 6 (4–9) 6 (4–7) 0.712
Normalization of post- treatment CEA Level    0.124    0.600
 Normal (<  5 ng/mL) 16 (80%) 31 (61%)   17 (65%) 29 (60%)  
 Elevated ( 5 ng/mL) 4 (20%) 20 (39%)   9 (35%) 20 (40%)  
CEA clearance pattern    0.001    0.007
 Exponential decrease (R20.9) 15 (75%) 16 (31%)   18 (69%) 18 (37%)  
 Non-exponential decrease (R2 < 0.9) 5 (25%) 35 (69%)   8 (31%) 31 (63%)  
Concurrent chemotherapy    0.601    NA
 Capecitabine 0 0   26 (35%) 49 (65%)  
 Infusional fluorouracil 10 (50%) 29 (57%)   0 0  
 mFOLFOX6 10 (50%) 22 (43%)   0 0  
  1. Abbreviation: NA not applicable
  2. The p value in boldface means statistically significant, that is, less than 0.05