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Table 4 Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Incidence-based mortality Rates (1973-2014)

From: Trends in pancreatic adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality in the United States in the last four decades; a SEER-based study

 

Overall (1973-2014)

Trend

1

2

3

4

APCa (95% CI)

P valueb

Year

APCa (95% CI)

P valueb

Year

APCa (95% CI)

P valueb

Year

APCa (95% CI)

P valueb

Year

APCa (95% CI)

P valueb

Overall

2.22 (1.93-2.51)

<.001

1973-1982

4.58 (3.38-5.79)

<.001

1982-2000

1.45 (1.08-1.83)

<.001

2000-2012

3.83 (3.21-4.45)

<.001

2012-2014

-24.70 (-31.78 - -16.88)

<.001

Sex

 Male

2.31 (2.03-2.59)

<.001

1973-1975

15.14 (0.57-31.82)

.04

1975-2000

1.83 (1.59-2.06)

<.001

2000-2012

4.03 (3.40-4.67)

<.001

2012-2014

-24.52 (-31.71 - -16.57)

<.001

 Female

2.17 (1.85-2.49)

<.001

1973-1983

5.34 (3.99-6.71)

<.001

1983-2000

1.20 (0.68-1.73)

<.001

2000-2012

3.66 (2.85-4.47)

<.001

2012-2014

-24.79 (-33.89 - -14.44)

<.001

Race

 White

1.92 (1.64-2.21)

<.001

1973-1976

12.10 (4.45-20.30)

<.001

1976-2001

1.53 (1.29-1.78)

<.001

2001-2012

3.50 (2.73-4.28)

<.001

2012-2014

-24.89 (-32.58 - -16.32)

<.001

 Black

2.91 (2.54-3.27)

<.001

1973-1980

8.93 (4.65-13.38)

<.001

1980-2001

2.19 (1.55-2.82)

<.001

2001-2012

4.46 (3.00-5.94)

<.001

2012-2014

-24.30 (-37.98 - -7.60)

.01

 Othersc

4.86 (4.40-5.31)

<.001

1973-2012

5.23 (4.92-5.53)

<.001

2012-2014

-22.08 (-37.33 - -3.13)

.03

      

Age at death, y

 <60

1.50 (1.10-1.91)

<.001

1973-1993

0.19 (-0.34-0.73)

.46

1993-2005

4.03 (2.84-5.24)

<.001

2005-2012

0.44 (-2.06-3.00)

.72

2012-2014

-33.46 (-45.65 - -18.53)

<.001

 >60

2.40 (2.10-2.70)

<.001

1973-1983

5.42 (4.30-6.55)

<.001

1983-2002

1.46 (1.11-1.82)

<.001

2002-2012

4.57 (3.69-5.46)

<.001

2012-2014

-22.92 (-30.31 - -14.75)

<.001

Stage at diagnosisd

 Localized

1.39 (0.92-1.87)

<.001

1973-1981

9.30 (5.75-12.97)

<.001

1981-1999

-0.94 (-1.83 - -0.04)

.04

1999-2012

4.57 (3.09-6.07)

<.001

2012-2014

-27.92 (-44.80 - -5.87)

.02

 Regional

2.94 (2.47-3.41)

<.001

1973-1977

12.80 (2.50-24.14)

.02

1977-2012

3.13 (2.88-3.38)

<.001

2012-2014

-36.81 (-49.61 - -20.77)

<.001

   

 Distant

2.35 (2.07-2.63)

<.001

1973-1975

25.14 (6.66-46.83)

.01

1975-1995

1.10 (0.72-1.49)

<.001

1995-2012

3.83 (3.42-4.25)

<.001

2012-2014

-17.61 (-25.68 - -8.66)

<.001

  1. aAnnual Percentage Changes, calculated using Joinpoint regression software
  2. bTwo-sided P value was calculated using t test to determine the significance of APC change
  3. cIncludes American Indian/Alaskan Native and Asian/Pacific Islander
  4. dUsing SEER historic stage A
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BMC Cancer

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