Skip to main content

Table 2 Observed and predicted 5-year overall survival from outcome calculator, stratified by patients’ characteristics

From: Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia

 

N

Observed deaths in 5 years

Predicted deaths in 5 years

Mortality Ratio (95 % CI)

Observed 5-year survival (%) (std err)

Predicted 5-year survival (median) (%)

Absolute difference (%) (95 % CI)

Overall

4517

752

667

1.13(1.05,1.21)

83.4 (0.006)

87.3

3.9 (2.7,5.1)

 Ethnicity

 Chinese

3340

488

478

1.02(0.93,1.12)

85.4 (0.006)

88.0

2.6 (1.4,3.8)

 Malay

654

143

104

1.38(1.16,1.62)

78.1 (0.016)

85.8

7.7 (4.6,10.8)

 Indian

430

109

71

1.54(1.26,1.85)

74.7 (0.021)

85.1

10.4 (6.3,14.5)

 Other

93

12

14

0.86(0.44,1.50)

87.1 (0.035)

87.3

0.2 (−6.7,7.1)

Country

 Malaysia

2143

423

331

1.28(1.16,1.41)

80.3 (0.009)

86.1

5.8(4.0,7.6)

 Singapore

2374

329

336

0.98(0.88,1.09)

86.1 (0.007)

88.6

2.5(1.1,3.9)

Period of diagnosis

 1990–1994

140

41

22

1.86(1.34,2.53)

70.7 (0.038)

85.9

15.2 (7.8,22.6)

 1995–1999

564

116

75

1.55(1.28,1.86)

79.8 (0.017)

87.9

8.1 (4.8,11.4)

 2000–2003

1800

279

261

1.07(0.95,1.20)

84.5 (0.009)

87.8

3.3 (1.5,5.1)

 2004–2007

2013

316

309

1.02(0.91,1.14)

84.3 (0.008)

87.2

2.9 (1.3,4.5)

Age at diagnosis

 0–39

493

101

64

1.58(1.29,1.92)

79.5 (0.018)

88.8

9.3(5.8,12.8)

 40–49

1430

172

163

1.06(0.90,1.23)

88.0 (0.009)

90.6

2.6(0.8,4.4)

 50–59

1412

224

194

1.15(1.01,1.32)

84.1 (0.010)

88.2

4.1(2.1,6.1)

 60–69

776

126

130

0.97(0.81,1.15)

83.8 (0.013)

85.1

1.3(−1.2,3.8)

 70+

406

129

117

1.10(0.92,1.31)

68.2 (0.023)

73.9

5.7 (1.2,10.2)

Tumor size (mm)

 0–20

1889

151

173

0.87(0.74,1.02)

92.0 (0.006)

92.9

0.9(−0.3,2.1)

 21–50

2180

438

374

1.17(1.06,1.29)

79.9 (0.009)

84.8

4.9 (3.1,6.7)

 51+

448

163

121

1.35(1.15,1.57)

63.6 (0.023)

73.6

10.0(5.5,14.5)

Number of positive nodes

 0

2408

196

238

0.82(0.71,0.95)

91.9 (0.006)

91.7

−0.2(−1.4,1.0)

 1–3

1068

195

165

1.18(1.02,1.36)

81.7 (0.012)

85.9

4.2(1.8,6.6)

 4–9

533

159

122

1.30(1.11,1.52)

70.2 (0.020)

78.0

7.8(3.9,11.7)

 10+

354

170

116

1.47(1.25,1.70)

52.0 (0.027)

67.4

15.4(10.1,20.7)

 Unknown

154

32

27

1.19(0.81,1.67)

79.2 (0.033)

86.6

7.4(0.9,13.9)

ER status

 Negative

1595

392

268

1.46(1.32,1.61)

75.4 (0.011)

85.2

9.8 (7.6,12.0)

 Positive

2668

309

367

0.84(0.75,0.94)

88.4 (0.006)

88.8

0.4(−0.8,1.6)

 Unknown

254

51

33

1.55(1.15,2.03)

79.9 (0.025)

88.6

8.7(3.8,13.6)

PR status

 Negative

1674

382

289

1.32(1.19,1.46)

77.2 (0.010)

84.8

7.6(5.6,9.6)

 Positive

2174

241

285

0.85(0.74,0.96)

88.9 (0.007)

89.5

0.6(−0.8,2.0)

 Unknown

669

129

93

1.39(1.16,1.65)

80.7 (0.015)

87.4

6.7 (3.8,9.6)

Her2 status

 Negative

1483

208

210

0.99(0.86,1.13)

86.0 (0.009)

88.0

2.0(0.2,3.8)

 Equivocal

118

19

19

1.00(0.60,1.56)

83.9 (0.034)

87.4

3.5(−3.2,10.2)

 Positive

790

172

147

1.17(1.00,1.36)

78.2 (0.015)

83.0

4.8(1.9,7.7)

 Unknown

2126

353

292

1.21(1.09,1.34)

83.4 (0.008)

88.7

5.3(3.7,6.9)

Histology

 Ductal

3951

696

597

1.17(1.08,1.26)

82.4 (0.006)

87.0

4.6 (3.4,5.8)

 Lobular

180

17

26

0.65(0.38,1.05)

90.6 (0.022)

87.5

−3.1(−7.4,1.2)

 Mucinous

156

10

14

0.71(0.34,1.31)

93.6 (0.020)

94.7

1.1(−2.8,5.0)

 Others

227

29

30

0.97(0.65,1.39)

87.2 (0.022)

89.5

2.3(−2.0,6.6)

 Unknown

3

0

0

-

100

86.8

−13.2

Grade

 1

552

20

44

0.45(0.28,0.70)

96.4 (0.008)

94.7

−1.7(−3.3,–0.1)

 2

1882

261

265

0.98(0.87,1.11)

86.1 (0.008)

88.2

2.1(0.5,3.7)

 3

1591

402

288

1.40(1.26,1.54)

74.7 (0.011)

84.3

9.6(7.4,11.8)

 Unknown

492

69

70

0.99(0.77,1.25)

86.0 (0.016)

87.4

1.4(−1.7,4.5)

  1. Numbers marked in bold indicate statistically significant difference at the 95% confidence level