Table 1 Input data values for base case analysis

Transition probabilities

 No HPV to HPV

0-0.194

0-0.113

CICAMS pooled data base [30]

 HPV to No HPV

0.32-0.61

0.32-0.61

CICAMS pooled data base [30]

 HPV to CIN1

0.049

0.049

Moscicki 2001 [25]

 CIN1 clearance

0.50

0.50

Van De Velde 2007 [26], Sanders 2003 [27]

 CIN1 to CIN2/3

0.121

0.121

Van De Velde 2007 [26], Sanders 2003 [27]

 CIN2/3 clearance

0.267

0.267

Melnikow 1998 [28]

 CIN2/3 to cancer

0.128

0.128

Melnikow 1998 [28]

 CC death rates

0.0699

0.0699

Quinn MA 2006 [29]

 Cancer cured

0.212

0.212

Quinn MA 2006 [29]

Screening

 Se of VIA/VILI

0.37-0.55

0.37-0.55

CICAMS pooled data base [30]

 Se of Pap smear

0.48-0.52

0.48-0.52

Cuzick J 2006 [36]

 Age at 1st screening

35 year

35 year

Assumption

 Age at 2nd screening

45 year

45 year

Assumption

 Screening coverage

6.25 %

21.5 %

[38–40]

 CIN1 treated

34 %

38 %

Delphi panel [22]

 CIN1 cured

100 %

100 %

Delphi panel [22]

 CIN2/3 treated

83 %

95 %

Delphi panel [22]

 CIN2/3 cured

90 %

90 %

Delphi panel [22]

Unit costs(CNY)

 Screening

24 CNY

54 CNY

Delphi panel [22]

 CIN1 treatment

367 CNY

681 CNY

Delphi panel [22]

 CIN2/3 treatment

2,626 CNY

4,237 CNY

Delphi panel [22]

 Cancer treatment

26,715 CNY

26,715 CNY

Delphi panel [22]

 Vaccine (3 doses)

1,900 CNY

1,900 CNY

Hong Kong listed price

 Vaccine administration (3 doses)

54 CNY

54 CNY

WZ Yu 2006 [23]

Disutility scores^a

 CIN1 detected

0.0128

0.0128

[31–35]

 CIN 23 detected

0.0128

0.0128

[31–35]

 Cancer treated

0.273

0.273

[31–35]

 Cancer cured

0.062

0.062

[31–35]

Vaccine efficacy^b

 Against CC

93.2 %

93.2 %

[3]

 Against CIN2/3

64.9 %

64.9 %

[3]

 Against CIN1

50.3 %

50.3 %

[3]

General variables

 Discount rate

3 %

3 %

[43]

 Age at vaccination (years)

12-55

12-55

Assumption