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Table 2 Possible states for cohort to enter the model

From: Cost-effectiveness of family history-based colorectal cancer screening in Australia

State Description Probability*
Normal No abnormality 0.78
Adenoma <10 mm Individual has adenoma that is <10 mm in diameter 0.1668
Adenoma ≥10 mm Individual has adenoma that is ≥10 mm in diameter 0.0464
Surveillance Individuals are in the surveillance state once they have had an adenoma ≥ 10 mm removed 0
CRC Dukes’ A Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage A 0.0036
Treatment Dukes’ A Individual with Dukes stage A has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening 0
CRC Dukes’ B Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage B 0.0016
Treatment Dukes’ B Individual with Dukes stage B has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening 0
CRC Dukes’ C Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage C 0.0012
Treatment Dukes’ C Individual with Dukes stage C has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening 0
CRC Dukes’ D Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage D 0.0004
Treatment Dukes’ D Individual with Dukes stage D has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening 0
Dead CRC Death from CRC 0
Dead other causes Death from colonoscopy 0
  1. *Based on Bishop et al.’s prevalence estimates (table 32) [24]. The original figures were multiplied by a factor of 4 for this analysis (methods section).