Cost-effectiveness of family history-based colorectal cancer screening in Australia

BMC Cancer

Table 2 Possible states for cohort to enter the model

State	Description	Probability*
Normal	No abnormality	0.78
Adenoma <10 mm	Individual has adenoma that is <10 mm in diameter	0.1668
Adenoma ≥10 mm	Individual has adenoma that is ≥10 mm in diameter	0.0464
Surveillance	Individuals are in the surveillance state once they have had an adenoma ≥ 10 mm removed	0
CRC Dukes’ A	Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage A	0.0036
Treatment Dukes’ A	Individual with Dukes stage A has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening	0
CRC Dukes’ B	Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage B	0.0016
Treatment Dukes’ B	Individual with Dukes stage B has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening	0
CRC Dukes’ C	Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage C	0.0012
Treatment Dukes’ C	Individual with Dukes stage C has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening	0
CRC Dukes’ D	Individual has developed CRC and is at Dukes stage D	0.0004
Treatment Dukes’ D	Individual with Dukes stage D has been diagnosed and will not take part in any further screening	0
Dead CRC	Death from CRC	0
Dead other causes	Death from colonoscopy	0

*Based on Bishop et al.’s prevalence estimates (table 32) [24]. The original figures were multiplied by a factor of 4 for this analysis (methods section).

ISSN: 1471-2407