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Table 2 Calibration of the risk models by quintiles of risk

From: An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

   N Expected cases (E) Observed cases (O) E/O C Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic p-value
Gail model        
3-year 1 2569 10 9 1.11   
  2 2894 13 14 0.93   
  3 2656 13 12 1.08   
  4 2740 16 11 1.45   
  5 2587 20 17 1.18 2.28 0.516
5-year 1 2671 17 16 1.06   
  2 2705 21 22 0.95   
  3 2612 22 16 1.38   
  4 2742 27 18 1.50   
  5 2716 37 35 1.06 4.90 0.180
Chen model        
3-year 1 2524 7 11 0.64   
  2 2420 9 7 1.29   
  3 2513 12 13 0.92   
  4 2498 15 15 1.00   
  5 2479 22 14 1.57 5.76 0.124
5-year 1 2423 12 14 0.86   
  2 2519 17 11 1.55   
  3 2495 21 21 1.00   
  4 2511 26 23 1.13   
  5 2487 39 28 1.39 5.97 0.113
Barlow model        
3-year 1 2713 19 8 2.38   
  2 2722 29 13 2.23   
  3 2716 39 10 3.90   
  4 2804 50 13 3.85   
  5 2754 70 19 3.68 103.22 < 0.001
5-year 1 2713 31 17 1.82   
  2 2847 51 18 2.83   
  3 2591 62 18 3.44   
  4 2833 84 20 4.20   
  5 2725 115 35 3.29 168.49 < 0.001