An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

BMC Cancer

Table 2 Calibration of the risk models by quintiles of risk

		N	Expected cases (E)	Observed cases (O)	E/O	C Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic	p-value
Gail model
3-year	1	2569	10	9	1.11
	2	2894	13	14	0.93
	3	2656	13	12	1.08
	4	2740	16	11	1.45
	5	2587	20	17	1.18	2.28	0.516
5-year	1	2671	17	16	1.06
	2	2705	21	22	0.95
	3	2612	22	16	1.38
	4	2742	27	18	1.50
	5	2716	37	35	1.06	4.90	0.180
Chen model
3-year	1	2524	7	11	0.64
	2	2420	9	7	1.29
	3	2513	12	13	0.92
	4	2498	15	15	1.00
	5	2479	22	14	1.57	5.76	0.124
5-year	1	2423	12	14	0.86
	2	2519	17	11	1.55
	3	2495	21	21	1.00
	4	2511	26	23	1.13
	5	2487	39	28	1.39	5.97	0.113
Barlow model
3-year	1	2713	19	8	2.38
	2	2722	29	13	2.23
	3	2716	39	10	3.90
	4	2804	50	13	3.85
	5	2754	70	19	3.68	103.22	< 0.001
5-year	1	2713	31	17	1.82
	2	2847	51	18	2.83
	3	2591	62	18	3.44
	4	2833	84	20	4.20
	5	2725	115	35	3.29	168.49	< 0.001

ISSN: 1471-2407