Risk factor1 | AUC (95% CI) | Change in AUC from base model2 | P3 | Improvement in sensitivity4 | Improvement in specificity4 | Overall improvement in classification4 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  | NRI (95% CI) | P5 | NRI (95% CI) | P5 | NRI (95% CI) | P5 |
Base model with demographic6 factors only | 0.67 (0.63, 0.72) | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
  MC1R all variants7 | 0.73 (0.69, 0.77) | 0.058 | <0.001 | 0.12 (0.05, 0.19) | 0.001 | 0.14 (0.06, 0.23) | <0.001 | 0.26 (0.15, 0.37) | <0.001 |
  ‘R’ variants only | 0.72 (0.68, 0.75) | 0.041 | 0.001 | 0.04 (−0.03, 0.11) | 0.25 | 0.17 (0.09, 0.25) | <0.001 | 0.21 (0.10, 0.31) | <0.001 |
  ‘r’ variants only | 0.68 (0.64, 0.72) | 0.004 | 0.48 | 0.03 (−0.02, 0.07) | 0.28 | 0.02 (−0.04, 0.08) | 0.52 | 0.05 (−0.03, 0.12) | 0.24 |
Self-reported risk factors | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
  Nevi (none, few, some, many) | 0.72 (0.68, 0.76) | 0.048 | 0.001 | 0.15 (0.07, 0.23) | <0.001 | 0.09 (−0.00, 0.18) | 0.06 | 0.24 (0.12, 0.36) | <0.001 |
  Pigmentation score8 | 0.73 (0.69, 0.77) | 0.053 | <0.001 | 0.09 (0.03, 0.16) | 0.004 | 0.12 (0.04, 0.20) | 0.003 | 0.22 (0.11, 0.32) | <0.001 |
  Sun & sunbed exposure9 | 0.69 (0.65, 0.73) | 0.015 | 0.06 | 0.04 (−0.01, 0.09) | 0.1 | 0.04 (−0.02, 0.10) | 0.2 | 0.08 (0.00, 0.16) | 0.04 |
  Family history10 | 0.68 (0.64, 0.72) | 0.006 | 0.4 | 0.01 (−0.02, 0.04) | 0.6 | 0.03 (−0.01, 0.07) | 0.2 | 0.04 (−0.01, 0.09) | 0.2 |
  Non-melanoma skin cancer11 | 0.70 (0.66, 0.74) | 0.024 | 0.003 | −0.03 (−0.06, 0.01) | 0.2 | 0.09 (0.05, 0.13) | <0.001 | 0.06 (0.01, 0.12) | 0.02 |
Physician-measured risk factors | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
  Nevi 2+ mm | 0.79 (0.75, 0.82) | 0.111 | <0.001 | 0.10 (0.03, 0.17) | 0.008 | 0.29 (0.20, 0.38) | <0.001 | 0.39 (0.28, 0.51) | <0.001 |
  Nevi 2–5 mm | 0.78 (0.75, 0.82) | 0.108 | <0.001 | 0.10 (0.03, 0.17) | 0.006 | 0.30 (0.21, 0.39) | <0.001 | 0.40 (0.29, 0.52) | <0.001 |
  Nevi 5+ mm | 0.76 (0.72, 0.79) | 0.082 | <0.001 | −0.01 (−0.08, 0.06) | 0.8 | 0.33 (0.25, 0.42) | <0.001 | 0.32 (0.21, 0.44) | <0.001 |
  Nevi dysplastic | 0.70 (0.66, 0.74) | 0.027 | 0.01 | −0.04 (−0.10, 0.01) | 0.1 | 0.15 (0.09, 0.21) | <0.001 | 0.10 (0.02, 0.19) | 0.02 |
  Nevi raised | 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) | 0.061 | <0.001 | −0.04 (−0.11, 0.03) | 0.2 | 0.29 (0.21, 0.36) | <0.001 | 0.24 (0.14, 0.35) | <0.001 |
  Pigmentation score12 | 0.72 (0.68, 0.76) | 0.047 | 0.001 | 0.11 (0.04, 0.17) | 0.001 | 0.09 (0.01, 0.17) | 0.03 | 0.20 (0.09, 0.30) | <0.001 |
  Solar lentigines | 0.74 (0.70, 0.78) | 0.063 | <0.001 | 0.09 (0.02, 0.16) | 0.01 | 0.17 (0.08, 0.26) | <0.001 | 0.26 (0.15, 0.37) | <0.001 |