Cost-effectiveness of MRI for breast cancer screening in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

BMC Cancer

Table 1 Model inputs for transition probabilities for cancer incidence, screen effectiveness, staging and survival

Incidence
10-year risk of breast cancer, by age [2]	%	95% CI
20-30	1.5	1.1-1.9
30-40	8.6	6.9-11
40-50	18	14-23
50-60	20	17-25
60-70	18	15-22
Screen effectiveness	Sensitivity		Specificity
	%	95% CI	%	95% CI
MRI and Mammography [16]	94	90-97	77	75-80
MRI	77	70-84	86	81-92
MRI given false negative mammogram	90	87-93*
Mammography	39	37-41	95	93-97
Mammography given false negative MRI	74	68-80*
Mammography alone, by age[26]
30-40	63	42-85	89.4	88.6-90.2
40-50	70	61-80	86.7	86.3-87.2
50-60	81	73-89	87.3	86.8-87.9
60-70	84	77-91	89.0	88.4-89.5
Stage distribution	MRI-detected[11–13, 27]†		Mammography detected[11–13, 27]†		Non-screen detected[28]
	%	95% CI	%	95% CI	%	95% CI
In Situ	16	10-22	27	17-38	5	3-6
Local	68	62-72	49	38-58	48	46-50
Regional	16	10-22	22	12-31	40	37-42
Distant	1	0-4	2	0-11	8	6-9
Survival‡	5-yr		10-yr
	(%)	95% CI	(%)	95% CI
In Situ	100	-	100	-
Local	96.8	96.4-97.1	90.6	89.2-91.7
Regional	88.8	84.7-91.6	71.2	63.1-76.9
Distant	26.1	21.9-29.9	10.2	7.2-13.2

* 95% CIs for conditional probabilities were estimated by sampling from beta distributions for sensitivity of MRI and mammography combined and sensitivity for each modality alone, and solving for the conditional probability.
† Calculated using cancers pooled from studies of MRI and mammography screening added to a uniform Dirichlet distribution.
‡ estimated from Weibull distribution parameters provided by BCCA Surveillance and Outcomes Unit for the general breast cancer population.

ISSN: 1471-2407