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Table 1 Model inputs for transition probabilities for cancer incidence, screen effectiveness, staging and survival

From: Cost-effectiveness of MRI for breast cancer screening in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

Incidence
10-year risk of breast cancer, by age [2] % 95% CI     
 20-30 1.5 1.1-1.9     
 30-40 8.6 6.9-11     
 40-50 18 14-23     
 50-60 20 17-25     
 60-70 18 15-22     
Screen effectiveness Sensitivity Specificity   
  % 95% CI % 95% CI   
MRI and Mammography [16] 94 90-97 77 75-80   
MRI 77 70-84 86 81-92   
MRI given false negative mammogram 90 87-93*     
Mammography 39 37-41 95 93-97   
Mammography given false negative MRI 74 68-80*     
Mammography alone, by age[26]
 30-40 63 42-85 89.4 88.6-90.2   
 40-50 70 61-80 86.7 86.3-87.2   
 50-60 81 73-89 87.3 86.8-87.9   
 60-70 84 77-91 89.0 88.4-89.5   
Stage distribution MRI-detected[1113, 27] Mammography detected[1113, 27] Non-screen detected[28]
  % 95% CI % 95% CI % 95% CI
 In Situ 16 10-22 27 17-38 5 3-6
 Local 68 62-72 49 38-58 48 46-50
 Regional 16 10-22 22 12-31 40 37-42
 Distant 1 0-4 2 0-11 8 6-9
Survival‡ 5-yr 10-yr   
  (%) 95% CI (%) 95% CI   
 In Situ 100 - 100 -   
 Local 96.8 96.4-97.1 90.6 89.2-91.7   
 Regional 88.8 84.7-91.6 71.2 63.1-76.9   
 Distant 26.1 21.9-29.9 10.2 7.2-13.2   
  1. * 95% CIs for conditional probabilities were estimated by sampling from beta distributions for sensitivity of MRI and mammography combined and sensitivity for each modality alone, and solving for the conditional probability.
  2. † Calculated using cancers pooled from studies of MRI and mammography screening added to a uniform Dirichlet distribution.
  3. ‡ estimated from Weibull distribution parameters provided by BCCA Surveillance and Outcomes Unit for the general breast cancer population.