Figure 3

Overlay plot of classifications made by the BETS-3 model. This plot illustrates which records were correctly (green dot) and incorrectly (red ×) classified as a function of the model’s predicted (estimated) probability of survival greater than 3 months. Most misclassifications were optimistic, with a median estimated probability of 0.64 (total range 0.06-1.00; interquartile range 0.44, 0.83). Three-month survival was overestimated in 142 records (incorrectly classified records from probability 0.5 to 1). In these cases, patients did not live as long as the estimated 3 months and surgery, performed at the end of life, may have been unnecessary.