Table 4 Projections to 2040
From: The incidence of early onset colorectal cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand: 2000–2020
2020 actual | 2030 predicted | 2040 predicted | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
count | % | count | % | (CI) | count | % | (CI) | ||
Total Ethnicity | |||||||||
Population | 5.1 M | 5.4 M | 5.8 M | ||||||
Cases | 3142 | 3665 | (3581, 3749) | 4255 | (4099, 4411) | ||||
Incidence | 61.8 | 67.36 | (65.81, 68.90) | 73.07 | (70.39, 75.75) | ||||
EOCRC | Population | 3.4 M | 65.90% | 3.4 M | 62.95% | 3.5 M | 60.31% | ||
Cases | 269 | 8.56% | 361 | 9.85% | (331, 391) | 524 | 12.31% | (458, 590) | |
Incidence | 8.00 | 10.50 | (9.7, 11.4) | 14.90 | (13.0, 16.8) | ||||
Older 80+ | Population | 0.2 M | 3.65% | 0.3 M | 5.29% | 0.4 M | 7.14% | ||
Cases | 801 | 25.49% | 1266 | 34.54% | (1210, 1322) | 1830 | 43.01% | (1711, 1949) | |
Incidence | 431.76 | 440.04 | (420.7, 459.4) | 439.96 | (411.4, 468.5) | ||||
Māori ethnicity | |||||||||
Population | 854.9 K | 1,019.30 K | 1,187.6 K | ||||||
Cases | 244 | 327 | (308, 346) | 438 | (400, 476) | ||||
Incidence | 28.54 | 32.04 | (30.22, 33.94) | 36.88 | (33.68, 40.08) | ||||
EOCRC | Population | 678.78 K | 77.34% | 788.40 K | 77.35% | 897.10 K | 75.5% | ||
Cases | 43 | 17.6% | 52 | 15.90% | 90 | 20.55% | (70, 109) | ||
Incidence | 6.33 | 6.64 | (5.63, 7.64) | 10 | (7.84, 12.17) | ||||
Older 70+ | Population | 33.03 K | 3.86% | 60.30 K | 5.92% | 97.60 K | 8.22% | ||
Cases | 69 | 28.3% | 130 | 39.76% | (117, 142) | 201 | 45.89% | (173, 229) | |
Incidence | 208.9 | 215.19 | (194.45, 235.94) | 205.61 | (176.76, 234.45) | ||||