Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952–2006: an age-period-cohort analysis

Table 2 Goodness of fit for age-period-cohort models to upper gastrointestinal tract cancer mortality, Spain 1952-2006

Model	Oral cavity & pharynx		Oesophagus		Stomach
Men	D.f.	Deviance	D.f.	Deviance	D.f.	Deviance
Age	110	7185.8	110	3052.2	130	19676.3
Age + drift	109	3296.2	109	2396.6	129	1923.0
Age + period	100	2145.2	100	1080.9	120	571.4
Age + cohort	90	2404.7	90	2087.0	108	850.4
Age + period + cohort	81	200.6	81	143.0	99	136.8
Annual net-drift*		2.01%		0.72%		-2.70%
Women
Age	110	492.8	110	1805.0	130	21345.9
Age + drift	109	312.3	109	860.2	129	2048.3
Age + period	100	287.8	100	319.5	120	1077.6
Age + cohort	90	164.6	90	397.8	108	611.1
Age + period + cohort	81	115.1	81	123.6	99	152.4
Annual net-drift*		1.04%		-1.89%		-3.50%

D.f. – Degrees of freedom.
*Overall annual percent change in age-adjusted mortality rates obtained from the sum of period and cohort linear slopes from the three-factor model.

ISSN: 1471-2407