Table 3 Comparison of the expected cases ( E ) of invasive breast cancer predicted by each respective model, to the observed cases ( O ) in the Singapore Breast Screening Programme (SBSP) cohort for each ethnic group

Overall

45–49

0

0.95

–

0.092

0.97

–

0.111

0.96

–

0.006

50–59

144

124.11

0.86 (0.73 to 1.01)

124.86

0.87 (0.74 to 1.02)

149.12

1.04 (0.88 to 1.22)

60–69

95

115.38

1.21 (0.99 to 1.49)

114.57

1.21 (0.99 to 1.47)

137.70

1.45 (1.19 to 1.77)

70–74

2

1.40

0.70 (0.18 to 2.80)

1.40

0.70 (0.17 to 2.80)

1.69

0.85 (0.21 to 3.38)

Total

241

241.83

1.00 (0.88 to 1.14)

0.957

241.80

1.00 (0.88 to 1.14)

0.959

289.47

1.20 (1.06 to 1.36)

0.004

Chinese

45–49

0

0.85

–

0.440

0.87

–

0.480

0.84

–

0.076

50–59

119

109.98

0.92 (0.77 to 1.11)

109.64

0.92 (0.77 to 1.10)

127.35

1.07 (0.89 to 1.28)

60–69

87

99.85

1.15 (0.93 to 1.42)

98.22

1.13 (0.91 to 1.39)

115.12

1.32 (1.07 to 1.63)

70–74

2

1.21

0.60 (0.15 to 2.42)

1.20

0.60 (0.15 to 2.40)

1.44

0.72 (0.18 to 2.88)

Total

208

211.88

1.02 (0.89 to 1.17)

0.790

209.93

1.01 (0.88 to 1.16)

0.894

244.75

1.18 (1.03 to 1.35)

0.019

Malay

45–49

0

0.05

–

0.652

0.06

–

0.591

0.05

–

0.209

50–59

4

4.91

1.23 (0.46 to 3.27)

5.23

1.31 (0.49 to 3.48)

7.27

1.82 (0.68 to 4.85)

60–69

2

5.41

2.71 (0.68 to 10.82)

5.67

2.84 (0.71 to 11.34)

7.72

3.86 (0.97 to 15.43)

70–74

0

0.08

–

0.08

–

0.11

–

Total

6

10.46

1.74 (0.78 to 3.88)

0.168

11.04

1.84 (0.83 to 4.09)

0.130

15.15

2.53 (1.13 to 5.62)

0.019

Indian

45–49

0

0.03

–

<0.001

0.03

–

<0.001

0.02

–

0.002

50–59

16

4.75

0.30 (0.18 to 0.48)

5.08

0.32 (0.19 to 0.52)

6.98

0.44 (0.27 to 0.71)

60–69

1

5.34

5.34 (0.75 to 37.90)

5.56

5.56 (0.78 to 39.49)

7.58

7.58 (1.07 to 53.79)

70–74

0

0.04

–

0.04

–

0.05

–

Total

17

10.16

0.60 (0.37 to 0.96)

0.032

10.71

0.63 (0.39 to 1.01)

0.055

14.64

0.86 (0.54 to 1.38)

0.537