Table 3 Comparative prognostic model performance in a large population cohort (n = 10,139) between the original risk group allocation and a simulated reassignment of risk allocation by applying the observed differences from Table 2 between clinical based characterisation (DRE + systematic sampling only) versus MRI based characterisation (MRI staging and combined MRI targeted and systematic sampling). European Association of Urology (EAU), American Urological Association, Cambridge Prognostic Group (CPG). *Death due only to prostate cancer

EAU

  Low

1707

33

Reference

–

0.69 (0.68–0.71)

1596

31

Reference

–

0.64 (0.63–0.66)

  Intermediate

3560

155

2.7 (1.9–4.1)

 < 0.0001

3070

134

2.1 (1.4–3.1)

 < 0.0001

  High

4083

601

9.0 (6.3–12.8)

 < 0.0001

4627

681

6.2 (4.3–8.9)

 < 0.0001

AUA

  Low

1707

33

Reference

0.71 (0.70–0.72)

1596

31

Reference

0.65 (0.64–0.67)

  Favourable Intermediate

2015

63

1.9 (1.2–2.8)

0.004

1700

53

1.55 (1.0–2.4)

0.05

  Un-favourable Intermediate

1545

92

3.9 (2.7–5.9)

 < 0.0001

1370

81

2.8 (1.8–4.2)

 < 0.0001

  High

4083

601

9.0 (6.4–12.8)

 < 0.0001

4627

681

6.3 (4.4–9.0)

 < 0.0001

CPG

  1

1707

33

Reference

0.75 (0.74–0.77)

1596

31

Reference

0.70 (0.67–0.71)

  2

2015

63

1.9 (1.2–2.9)

0.004

1700

53

1.6 (0.99–2.4)

0.05

  3

1545

92

4.90 (2.7–6.0)

 < 0.0001

1370

81

2.8 (1.8–4.2)

 < 0.0001

  4

2784

268

5.6 (3.9–8.1)

 < 0.0001

3177

306

4.3 (3.0–6.3)

 < 0.0001

  5

1299

333

18.4 (12.9–26.4)

 < 0.0001

1452

373

9.8 (6.8–14.1)

 < 0.0001