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Table 2 The incidence rates of breast cancer in China, Japan and South Korea by sex and age, during 1990–2019, and projected until 2034

From: Burden, trends, and risk factors for breast cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions until 2034: an up-to-date overview and comparison with those in Japan and South Korea

  

Incidence Rate (/105)

EAPC (95%CI)

1990 (95%UI)

2019 (95%UI)

2020 (95%CI)

2034 (95%CI)

1990–2019

2020–2034

China

  Both a

8.54(7.07–10.11)

18.32(14.5–22.93)

18.21(15.28–21.75)

18.54(13.64–25.09)

2.8(2.7–2.91) *

0.12(0.10–0.14) *

  Female a

17.07(14.02–20.3)

35.61(28.07–44.81)

35.38(29.58–42.36)

35.47(25.89–48.48)

2.66(2.57–2.76) *

0.02(0–0.04)

  All ages

14.14(11.57–16.83)

52.81(41.59–66.43)

51.62(47.01–56.56)

60.67(45.78–79.71)

4.74(4.63–4.84) *

1.17(1.12–1.23) *

  15–49

10.09(8.04–12.27)

30.41(23.18–38.57)

31.09(25.96–37.19)

32.52(23.80–44.75)

3.51(3.19–3.83) *

0.43(0.28–0.59) *

  50–69

52.34(42.87–62.50)

109.19(85.72–137.57)

106.18(88.83–127.20)

108.11(78.69–146.95)

2.94(2.67–3.2) *

0.18(0.11–0.24) *

  70 + 

44.14(38.16–51.21)

102.62(83.91–125.27)

104.75(87.39–125.38)

110.89(80.71–151.48)

3.14(3–3.27) *

0.34(0.18–0.5) *

  Male a

0.13(0.1–0.15)

0.69(0.53–0.88)

0.74(0.57–0.95)

0.93(0.41–2.01)

8.37(7.32–9.43) *

1.66(1.57–1.76) *

  All ages

0.09(0.07–0.11)

0.98(0.74–1.25)

1.03(0.84–1.27)

1.76(0.79–3.74)

11.03(9.89–12.16) *

3.79(3.68–3.9) *

  15–49

0.04(0.03–0.04)

0.29(0.21–0.37)

0.26(0.19–0.34)

0.21(0.09–0.47)

9.54(8.38–10.69) *

-1.27(-1.51–1.03) *

  50–69

0.37(0.29–0.45)

2.33(1.71–2.99)

2.62(2.02–3.39)

3.86(1.72–8.21)

9.23(8.02–10.44) *

2.98(2.81–3.15) *

  70 + 

0.74(0.6–0.9)

3.57(2.8–4.46)

3.87(2.94–5.06)

5.27(2.36–11.54)

7.39(6.56–8.21) *

1.87(1.62–2.12) *

Japan

  Both a

19.07(17.92–20.29)

31.02(24.85–38.16)

30.59(28.12–33.30)

29.37(23.67–36.00)

1.94(1.71–2.18) *

-0.30(-0.32–0.28) *

  Female a

36.07(33.92–38.39)

60.47(48.35–74.56)

59.52(54.71–64.80)

56.57(45.74–69.41)

2.03(1.8–2.27) *

-0.38(-0.4–0.36) *

  All ages

49.2(46.21–52.37)

113.34(90.5–138.86)

114.00(107.91–120.42)

121.56(99.72–147.39)

3.17(2.94–3.41) *

0.45(0.39–0.5) *

  15–49

36.91(33.14–41.06)

57.11(44.16–73.46)

55.75(50.67–61.05)

49.16(39.36–60.79)

1.53(1.33–1.74) *

-0.9(-1.03–0.76) *

  50–69

95.83(87.98–104.76)

190.13(148.94–237.62)

183.19(168.07–200.02)

158.94(128.55–195.23)

2.75(2.54–2.96) *

-1.05(-1.1–1.01) *

  70 + 

93.50(82.55–103.23)

177.24(130.93–218.90)

188.58(172.77–205.48)

214.22(173.59–262.68)

2.77(2.53–3.02) *

0.91(0.83–0.99) *

  Male a

0.19(0.17–0.22)

0.24(0.19–0.31)

0.23(0.19–0.28)

0.24(0.17–0.32)

0.65(0.36–0.93) *

0.02(0–0.03) *

  All ages

0.22(0.19–0.25)

0.54(0.42–0.69)

0.53(0.46–0.62)

0.63(0.47–0.82)

2.89(2.53–3.25) *

1.17(1.15–1.19) *

  15–49

0.07(0.05–0.09)

0.1(0.07–0.14)

0.07(0.02–0.19)

0.07(0.01–0.19)

1.25(1.01–1.49) *

0.01(-0.41–0.43)

  50–69

0.46(0.38–0.57)

0.66(0.46–0.94)

0.65(0.41–0.95)

0.67(0.4–1.03)

1.09(0.76–1.41) *

0.25(-0.06–0.56)

  70 + 

1.36(1.13–1.67)

1.74(1.31–2.28)

1.72(1.2–2.33)

1.79(1.16–2.59)

0.66(0.37–0.95) *

0.32(0.27–0.37)

South Korea

  Both a

9.5(8.9–10.19)

23.79(19.29–28.65)

23.75(21.25–26.54)

23.07(16.67–31.25)

3.42(3.07–3.78) *

-0.23(-0.25–0.20) *

  Female a

17.5(16.39–18.81)

46.4(37.59–56.14)

46.10(41.24–51.67)

43.87(31.60–60.13)

3.6(3.27–3.94) *

-0.36(-0.4–0.31) *

  All ages

15.61(14.61–16.78)

76.66(61.92–92.55)

78.29(71.90–85.240

92.76 (67.71–125.14)

5.78(5.41–6.15) *

1.21(1.13–1.3) *

  15–49

12.22(11.06–13.61)

43.73(33.51–55.05)

42.57(37.35–48.40)

36.26(25.72–50.42)

4.7(4.19–5.21) *

-1.19(-1.24–1.13) *

  50–69

49.38(44.63–54.80)

131.88(102.87–166.01)

132.04(117.30–148.47)

134.68(97.33–184.95)

3.56(3.26–3.87) *

0.18(0.05–0.31) *

  70 + 

44.46(39.68–49.94)

154.60(120.05–192.00)

158.99(140.40–180.13)

165.59(119.64–225.98)

4.65(4.24–5.05) *

0.27(0.25–0.29) *

  Male a

0.13(0.11–0.15)

0.21(0.15–0.28)

0.17(0.12–0.25)

0.17(0.09–0.3)

0.52(-0.04–1.09)

-0.07(-0.09–0.06) *

  All ages

0.07(0.06–0.09)

0.29(0.2–0.39)

0.26(0.19–0.35)

0.41(0.23–0.65)

3.86(3.39–4.32) *

3.05(2.94–3.17) *

  15–49

0.04(0.03–0.05)

0.08(0.05–0.12)

0.04(0–0.16)

0.04(0–0.23)

2.08(1.66–2.51) *

1.47(0.04–2.9) *

  50–69

0.27(0.2–0.37)

0.47(0.28–0.74)

0.42(0.16–0.81)

0.46(0.15–0.94)

0.79(0.24–1.34) *

0.62(0.48–0.75) *

  70 + 

0.83(0.58–1.16)

1.43(0.88–2.27)

1.22(0.41–2.4)

1.27(0.49–2.49)

0.54(-0.11–1.19) *

-0.03(-0.3–0.25)

  1. EAPC estimated annual percentage change, 95% UI 95% uncertainty interval, 95% CI 95% confidence interval
  2. a Age-standardized incidence rate
  3. * Changes that are statistically significant