Table 6 Observed and predicted probability according to decile in the training and validation group
| Groups | Probability | Decile | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1th | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | ||
| The training group | Observed | 15.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 15.00% | 15.00% | 25.00% | 30.00% | 55.00% | 30.00% | 62.50% |
|
Predicted (Mean ± SD) |
9.64% ±1.33% |
12.50% ±1.20% |
15.60% ±1.56% |
17.65% ±0.00% |
19.94% ±1.51% |
25.69% ±2.19% |
30.10% ±1.33% |
39.27% ±3.98% |
45.79% ±1.40% |
57.78% ±3.31% | |
| The validation group | Observed | 15.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 15.00% | 25.00% | 30.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 50.00% |
|
Predicted (Mean ± SD) |
9.36% ±1.40% |
11.96% ±1.02% |
14.41% ±0.88% |
17.65% ±0.00% |
18.72% ±0.81% |
23.94% ±1.64% |
28.77% ±1.01% |
33.46% ±3.16% |
44.83% ±2.12% |
57.28% ±4.26% | |
| Patients (n) | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 24 | |
| Risk groups | The low risk group (≧0 and < 20%) | The medium risk group (≧20 and < 40%) | The high risk group (≧40%) | ||||||||
| Observed probability (the validation group) | 14.47% ± 3.63% | 29.24% ± 4.67% | 52.18% ± 6.78% | ||||||||
| P* | < 0.01 | ||||||||||
| Predicted probability (the validation group) | 13.86% (14/101) | 29.51% (18/61) | 45.24% (19/42) | ||||||||
| P† | < 0.01 | ||||||||||