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Table 6 Observed and predicted probability according to decile in the training and validation group

From: Prediction of early vascular cement leakage following percutaneous vertebroplasty in spine metastases: the Peking University First Hospital Score (PUFHS)

Groups Probability Decile
1th 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
The training group Observed 15.00% 15.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 25.00% 30.00% 55.00% 30.00% 62.50%
Predicted
(Mean ± SD)
9.64%
±1.33%
12.50%
±1.20%
15.60%
±1.56%
17.65%
±0.00%
19.94%
±1.51%
25.69%
±2.19%
30.10%
±1.33%
39.27%
±3.98%
45.79%
±1.40%
57.78%
±3.31%
The validation group Observed 15.00% 20.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 35.00% 50.00%
Predicted
(Mean ± SD)
9.36%
±1.40%
11.96%
±1.02%
14.41%
±0.88%
17.65%
±0.00%
18.72%
±0.81%
23.94%
±1.64%
28.77%
±1.01%
33.46%
±3.16%
44.83%
±2.12%
57.28%
±4.26%
Patients (n) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 24
Risk groups The low risk group (0 and < 20%) The medium risk group (20 and < 40%) The high risk group (40%)
Observed probability (the validation group) 14.47% ± 3.63% 29.24% ± 4.67% 52.18% ± 6.78%
P* < 0.01
Predicted probability (the validation group) 13.86% (14/101) 29.51% (18/61) 45.24% (19/42)
P < 0.01
  1. *indicates the Kruskal Wallis test; indicates the Chi-square test