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Table 2 Proportion of simulations where true MTD identified

From: Assessment of various continual reassessment method models for dose-escalation phase 1 oncology clinical trials: using real clinical data and simulation studies

A. Clinical trial dose toxicity curves

Dose escalation method

True dose toxicity curve

AZD3514

AZD1208

AZD1480

AZD4877

3 + 3

64.9

50.5

45.5

100.0

Extended CRM

Conservative

71.7

66.8

60.9

100.0

Aggressive

34.8

88.3

51.0

100.0

Step-up

57.6

88.9

60.1

100.0

Dose-Linear

36.4

98.5

60.4

100.0

Sigmoidal

71.4

66.8

68.4

100.0

O’Quigley

56.5

78.2

59.8

100.0

B. Theoretical dose toxicity curves

Dose escalation method

True dose toxicity curve

Conservative

Step-up

Dose-linear

Sigmoidal

3 + 3

33.1

22.7

36.8

46.6

Extended CRM

Conservative

63.4

43.9

53.9

50.3

Aggressive

44.6

30.8

48.2

33.9

Step-up

44.5

29.8

64.2

32.6

Dose-Linear

39.7

23.6

62.7

22.8

Sigmoidal

51.7

33.0

67.8

33.2

O’Quigley

40.4

27.3

65.9

28.9

  1. The method which correctly identified the MTD of a true dose toxicity curve in the greatest percentage of simulations is italicised and emboldened. The method which correctly identified the MTD of a true dose toxicity curve in the lowest percentage of simulations is italicised and underlined