Table 1 Model parameters, sources, and distributions used in the probabilistic analysis
Parameter | Value | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Probabilities | |||
Serious adverse event (BREN+AVD) | 0.429 | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Serious adverse event (ABVD) | 0.270 | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Treatment discontinuation (BREN+AVD) | 0.133 | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Treatment discontinuation (ABVD) | 0.159 | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Mortality on treatment (BREN+AVD) | 0.013 | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Mortality on treatment (ABVD) | 0.019 | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Progression/relapse while in complete remission (BREN+AVD) | Time Dep | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Mortality in complete remission (BREN+AVD) | Time Dep | Beta | Connors et al. (2018) [10] |
Progression/relapse while in complete remission (ABVD) | Time Dep | Beta | CLC |
Mortality in complete remission (ABVD) | Time Dep | Beta | CLC |
Eligible for ASCT (BREN+AVD or ABVD) | 0.8 | Beta | Expert Opinion |
Mortality in progression/relapse (ABVD) | Time Dep | Beta | Vivani et al. (2011) [12] |
Mortality in progression/relapse (BREN+AVD) | Time Dep | Beta | Vivani et al. (2011) [12] |
Successful ASCT | 0.5 | Beta | Expert Opinion |
Progression/relapse post-ASCT (BREN+AVD) | Time Dep | Beta | CLC |
Progression/relapse post-ASCT (ABVD) | Time Dep | Beta | CLC |
Mortality post-ASCT progression/relapse (BREN+AVD or ABVD) | Time Dep | Beta | Chen et al. (2016) [13] |
Costs | |||
Cost BREN+AVD | $116,160 | Gamma | Canadian list price for six cycles |
Cost ABVD | $12,701 | Gamma | Canadian list price for six cycles |
PET scan | $1877 | Gamma | Cerci et al. (2010) [14] |
Cost of adverse event (ABVD or BREN+AVD) | $12,036 | Gamma | Wong et al. (2018) [15] |
ASCT | $67,723 | Gamma | Bloomstein et al. (2012) [16] |
Salvage chemotherapy for non-responders | $140,800 | Gamma | Canadian list price for six cycles |
Utility values | |||
Receiving treatment (ABVD or BREN+AVD) | 0.71 | Beta | Swinburn et al. (2015) [17] |
Complete remission | 0.91 | Beta | Swinburn et al. (2015) [17] |
Adverse event | 0.59 | Beta | Swinburn et al. (2015) [17] |
Progressive disease | 0.38 | Beta | Swinburn et al. (2015) [17] |
Model details | |||
Cycle length | 6 months | Assumed | |
Time horizon | 15 years | Assumed | |
Cost year | 2018 | Assumed | |
Discount rate: costs | 1.5% | Assumed | |
Discount rate: effects | 1.5% | Assumed | |