From: Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001–2030
Oesophagus Cancer | Colon and rectum Cancer | Gallbladder Cancer | Pancreas Cancer | Stomach Cancer | Liver Cancer | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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province | 2015 (95% CI) | 2030 (95% CI) | % Change | 2015 (95% CI) | 2030 (95% CI) | % Change | 2015 (95% CI) | 2030 (95% CI) | % Change | 2015 (95% CI) | 2030 (95% CI) | % Change | 2015 (95% CI) | 2030 (95% CI) | % Change | 2015 (95% CI) | 2030 (95% CI) | % Change | ||||||||||||
Markazi | 2.2 | (1.9–2.7) | 0.9 | (0.7–1.1) | −59.1 | 4.3 | (3.8–4.7) | 4.3 | (0.8–4.9) | 0.0 | 1.8 | (1.6–1.9) | 9.1 | (0.8–10.4) | 405.6 | 3.3 | (2.9–3.8) | 7.5 | (0.3–8.8) | 127.3 | 8.1 | (7.2–9.1) | 4.0 | (0.5–4.6) | −50.6 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 2.3 | (0.1–2.6) | 35.3 |
Gilan | 1.9 | (1.6–2.3) | 0.8 | (1.7–1) | −57.9 | 3.5 | (3.1–3.9) | 3.0 | (1.7–3.4) | −14.3 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.7) | 6.8 | (1.6–7.7) | 353.3 | 2.8 | (2.5–3.3) | 5.9 | (1.1–6.8) | 110.7 | 7.6 | (6.7–8.5) | 3.7 | (1.3–4.1) | −51.3 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.7) | 1.9 | (1.7–2) | 18.8 |
Mazandaran | 1.7 | (1.4–2.1) | 0.6 | (2.5–0.8) | −64.7 | 2.3 | (2–2.6) | 1.7 | (2.4–1.9) | −26.1 | 1.3 | (1.1–1.5) | 5.4 | (2.5–6.5) | 315.4 | 2.0 | (1.7–2.5) | 3.6 | (2.9–4.4) | 80.0 | 6.8 | (5.9–7.9) | 3.1 | (2.7–3.7) | −54.4 | 1.3 | (1.1–1.4) | 1.4 | (2.2–1.6) | 7.7 |
East Azerbaijan | 2.1 | (1.8–2.6) | 0.8 | (3.7–0.9) | − 61.9 | 3.3 | (3–3.7) | 2.2 | (3.2–2.5) | −33.3 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.8) | 7.0 | (3.3–7.7) | 337.5 | 2.8 | (2.5–3.2) | 4.6 | (3.4–5.3) | 64.3 | 7.7 | (6.9–8.5) | 3.5 | (3.1–3.9) | −54.5 | 1.4 | (1.4–1.6) | 1.6 | (3.4–1.7) | 14.3 |
West Azerbaijan | 2.0 | (1.6–2.4) | 0.7 | (4.6–0.9) | −65.0 | 2.7 | (2.4–3) | 1.5 | (4.3–1.7) | −44.4 | 1.7 | (1.5–1.8) | 6.9 | (4.6–7.9) | 305.9 | 2.3 | (2–2.6) | 3.3 | (4.8–3.9) | 43.5 | 7.3 | (6.5–8.1) | 3.2 | (4.8–3.6) | −56.2 | 1.3 | (1.3–1.5) | 1.3 | (4.2–1.4) | 0.0 |
Kermanshah | 2.1 | (1.8–2.6) | 0.8 | (5.6–0.9) | −61.9 | 4.1 | (3.7–4.5) | 3.0 | (5.7–3.3) | −26.8 | 1.9 | (1.7–2) | 8.7 | (5.8–9.7) | 357.9 | 3.2 | (2.8–3.6) | 5.4 | (5.7–6.2) | 68.8 | 7.9 | (7.1–8.9) | 3.7 | (5.3–4.1) | −53.2 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 2.0 | (5.8–2.1) | 17.6 |
Khuzestan | 2.2 | (1.9–2.7) | 0.8 | (6.7–1) | −63.6 | 3.7 | (3.3–4.1) | 3.3 | (6.3–3.7) | −10.8 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.9) | 8.4 | (6.6–9.3) | 394.1 | 3.0 | (2.7–3.5) | 6.1 | (6.3–7) | 103.3 | 7.9 | (7–8.8) | 3.8 | (6.4–4.3) | −51.9 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.6) | 2.0 | (6.9–2.2) | 33.3 |
Fars | 2.1 | (1.8–2.5) | 0.8 | (7.6–0.9) | −61.9 | 3.9 | (3.6–4.3) | 3.7 | (7.3–4.1) | −5.1 | 1.7 | (1.5–1.8) | 8.2 | (7.3–9.1) | 382.4 | 3.2 | (2.8–3.6) | 6.5 | (7.6–7.5) | 103.1 | 7.9 | (7.1–8.8) | 3.8 | (7.4–4.3) | −51.9 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.8) | 2.3 | (7.1–2.5) | 43.8 |
Kerman | 1.8 | (1.5–2.2) | 0.6 | (8.5–0.7) | −66.7 | 2.8 | (2.5–3.1) | 1.6 | (8.4–1.9) | −42.9 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.7) | 6.5 | (8.6–7.5) | 333.3 | 2.3 | (2–2.6) | 3.2 | (8.6–3.9) | 39.1 | 7.2 | (6.4–8.1) | 3.1 | (8.7–3.6) | −56.9 | 1.4 | (1.3–1.6) | 1.6 | (8.4–1.8) | 14.3 |
Razavi Khorasan | 2.2 | (1.8–2.6) | 0.8 | (9.7–1) | −63.6 | 3.7 | (3.4–4.1) | 3.0 | (9.7–3.3) | −18.9 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 7.9 | (9.2–8.7) | 364.7 | 3.1 | (2.7–3.5) | 5.6 | (9.9–6.4) | 80.6 | 7.8 | (7–8.7) | 3.7 | (9.3–4.1) | −52.6 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.7) | 1.9 | (9.8–2.1) | 26.7 |
Isfahan | 2.6 | (2.1–3.2) | 0.9 | (10.7–1.1) | −65.4 | 4.2 | (3.7–4.7) | 3.6 | (10.1–4) | −14.3 | 1.7 | (1.5–1.8) | 9.0 | (10.7–10.4) | 429.4 | 3.6 | (3–4.3) | 6.5 | (10.4–7.9) | 80.6 | 8.2 | (7.2–9.4) | 3.9 | (10.4–4.5) | −52.4 | 1.5 | (1.3–1.6) | 2.0 | (10.8–2.2) | 33.3 |
Sistan and Baluchistan | 1.6 | (1.3–1.9) | 0.5 | (11.4–0.7) | −68.8 | 3.5 | (3.1–4) | 2.1 | (11.9–2.5) | −40.0 | 2.1 | (1.9–2.4) | 9.3 | (11.1–10.8) | 342.9 | 2.4 | (2–2.9) | 3.5 | (11.9–4.4) | 45.8 | 7.4 | (6.5–8.5) | 3.3 | (11.8–3.8) | −55.4 | 2.0 | (1.8–2.2) | 2.1 | (11.8–2.3) | 5.0 |
Kurdistan | 2.0 | (1.7–2.4) | 0.8 | (12.6–1) | −60.0 | 2.6 | (2.4–2.9) | 1.4 | (12.3–1.6) | −46.2 | 1.7 | (1.5–1.9) | 6.5 | (12.5–7.7) | 282.4 | 2.2 | (2–2.6) | 3.3 | (12.8–3.9) | 50.0 | 7.2 | (6.5–8.1) | 3.2 | (12.8–3.6) | −55.6 | 1.3 | (1.2–1.4) | 1.1 | (12.1–1.3) | −15.4 |
Hamadan | 1.9 | (1.6–2.2) | 0.7 | (13.6–0.8) | −63.2 | 3.4 | (3.1–3.7) | 2.8 | (13.5–3.1) | −17.6 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 7.7 | (13.7–8.6) | 352.9 | 2.6 | (2.3–3) | 5.1 | (13.4–5.9) | 96.2 | 7.5 | (6.7–8.4) | 3.6 | (13.2–4) | −52.0 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.7) | 2.0 | (13.9–2.2) | 25.0 |
Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari | 1.9 | (1.5–2.2) | 0.7 | (14.5–0.8) | −63.2 | 3.5 | (3.2–3.9) | 2.8 | (14.5–3.1) | −20.0 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.9) | 7.9 | (14.1–8.8) | 364.7 | 2.7 | (2.4–3.1) | 4.9 | (14.2–5.7) | 81.5 | 7.6 | (6.8–8.5) | 3.6 | (14.1–4) | −52.6 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 2.1 | (14.9–2.3) | 23.5 |
Lorestan | 1.9 | (1.6–2.3) | 0.7 | (15.6–0.8) | −63.2 | 2.7 | (2.5–3) | 1.5 | (15.3–1.6) | −44.4 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.7) | 6.3 | (15.6–7.2) | 293.8 | 2.3 | (2–2.6) | 3.2 | (15.7–3.7) | 39.1 | 7.2 | (6.5–8) | 3.1 | (15.7–3.5) | −56.9 | 1.4 | (1.3–1.5) | 1.3 | (15.2–1.4) | −7.1 |
Ilam | 2.0 | (1.6–2.3) | 0.7 | (16.6–0.9) | −65.0 | 3.7 | (3.3–4) | 3.0 | (16.7–3.3) | −18.9 | 1.8 | (1.6–1.9) | 7.9 | (16.2–8.7) | 338.9 | 2.9 | (2.5–3.2) | 5.4 | (16.7–6.2) | 86.2 | 7.7 | (6.9–8.6) | 3.6 | (16.2–4.1) | −53.2 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 2.0 | (16.9–2.2) | 17.6 |
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer_Ahmad | 1.7 | (1.4–2) | 0.7 | (17.6–0.8) | − 58.8 | 2.8 | (2.5–3.1) | 1.8 | (17.6–2.1) | −35.7 | 1.7 | (1.5–1.8) | 7.0 | (17.2–7.9) | 311.8 | 2.2 | (1.9–2.6) | 3.7 | (17.2–4.4) | 68.2 | 7.1 | (6.3–8.1) | 3.3 | (17.9–3.7) | −53.5 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.7) | 1.5 | (17.4–1.7) | 0.0 |
Bushehr | 2.1 | (1.8–2.5) | 0.8 | (18.7–1) | −61.9 | 5.4 | (4.9–6) | 7.1 | (18.3–8.1) | 31.5 | 1.9 | (1.7–2) | 10.1 | (18.4–12.1) | 431.6 | 3.9 | (3.4–4.5) | 10.5 | (18.6–12.8) | 169.2 | 8.6 | (7.7–9.6) | 4.5 | (18.9–5.3) | −47.7 | 2.1 | (1.9–2.3) | 3.5 | (18.1–4) | 66.7 |
Zanjan | 1.9 | (1.6–2.3) | 0.7 | (19.6–0.9) | −63.2 | 1.4 | (1.3–1.6) | 0.5 | (19.4–0.6) | −64.3 | 1.2 | (1–1.4) | 3.8 | (19.9–5) | 216.7 | 1.5 | (1.2–1.8) | 1.7 | (19.3–2.2) | 13.3 | 6.3 | (5.5–7.2) | 2.5 | (19.1–3) | −60.3 | 0.9 | (0.8–1) | 0.6 | (19.5–0.7) | −33.3 |
Semnan | 2.3 | (1.9–2.8) | 0.8 | (20.7–1) | −65.2 | 3.9 | (3.5–4.4) | 3.6 | (20.2–4.1) | −7.7 | 1.5 | (1.3–1.6) | 7.1 | (20.2–8.1) | 373.3 | 3.4 | (2.9–3.9) | 6.8 | (20.8–8) | 100.0 | 8.0 | (7.1–8.9) | 3.8 | (20.4–4.3) | −52.5 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.6) | 2.1 | (20.9–2.3) | 40.0 |
Yazd | 2.5 | (2.1–3) | 0.9 | (21.7–1.1) | −64.0 | 3.9 | (3.5–4.3) | 3.4 | (21.3–3.8) | −12.8 | 1.5 | (1.3–1.6) | 6.4 | (21.6–7.4) | 326.7 | 3.5 | (3–4) | 6.9 | (21.8–8.2) | 97.1 | 8.1 | (7.1–9.2) | 3.9 | (21.4–4.4) | −51.9 | 1.4 | (1.3–1.5) | 1.8 | (21.6–2) | 28.6 |
Hormozgan | 1.6 | (1.3–2) | 0.6 | (22.5–0.8) | −62.5 | 4.4 | (3.9–4.9) | 5.6 | (22.8–6.4) | 27.3 | 2.0 | (1.8–2.3) | 11.3 | (22.4–13.5) | 465.0 | 2.9 | (2.5–3.5) | 7.5 | (22.1–9.2) | 158.6 | 7.9 | (6.9–9) | 4.1 | (22.5–4.8) | −48.1 | 2.2 | (2–2.4) | 3.7 | (22.3–4.2) | 68.2 |
Tehran | 2.9 | (2.3–3.6) | 1.0 | (23.8–1.2) | −65.5 | 4.7 | (4.1–5.4) | 3.8 | (23.4–4.4) | −19.1 | 1.4 | (1.2–1.7) | 7.8 | (23.9–9) | 457.1 | 4.3 | (3.5–5.3) | 7.3 | (23.1–8.7) | 69.8 | 8.5 | (7.2–9.9) | 4.0 | (23.4–4.6) | −52.9 | 1.4 | (1.3–1.6) | 2.0 | (23.8–2.2) | 42.9 |
Ardabil | 2.0 | (1.6–2.3) | 0.8 | (24.6–0.9) | −60.0 | 3.1 | (2.8–3.4) | 2.1 | (24.9–2.3) | −32.3 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.8) | 6.8 | (24.1–7.5) | 300.0 | 2.5 | (2.2–2.9) | 4.3 | (24.8–5) | 72.0 | 7.5 | (6.7–8.3) | 3.4 | (24.3–3.8) | −54.7 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.6) | 1.5 | (24.4–1.6) | 0.0 |
Qom | 2.9 | (2.3–3.7) | 1.0 | (25.8–1.2) | −65.5 | 4.0 | (3.5–4.7) | 3.2 | (25.8–3.7) | −20.0 | 1.6 | (1.4–1.9) | 7.6 | (25.6–8.7) | 375.0 | 3.6 | (2.9–4.5) | 6.5 | (25.4–7.9) | 80.6 | 8.3 | (7–9.8) | 3.9 | (25.3–4.5) | −53.0 | 1.3 | (1.2–1.5) | 1.7 | (25.5–1.9) | 30.8 |
Qazvin | 2.2 | (1.8–2.6) | 0.8 | (26.7–1) | −63.6 | 3.9 | (3.6–4.4) | 3.4 | (26.3–3.8) | −12.8 | 1.8 | (1.7–2) | 9.5 | (26.3–10.9) | 427.8 | 3.1 | (2.7–3.6) | 5.9 | (26.9–7) | 90.3 | 8.0 | (7.1–8.9) | 3.8 | (26.3–4.4) | −52.5 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.8) | 2.2 | (26.9–2.4) | 37.5 |
Golestan | 1.7 | (1.4–2) | 0.6 | (27.5–0.7) | −64.7 | 3.5 | (3.1–3.9) | 3.3 | (27.9–3.8) | −5.7 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.9) | 8.4 | (27.3–9.7) | 394.1 | 2.6 | (2.2–3.1) | 5.5 | (27.5–6.6) | 111.5 | 7.4 | (6.5–8.5) | 3.6 | (27.1–4.2) | −51.4 | 1.8 | (1.6–2) | 2.5 | (27.2–2.8) | 38.9 |
North Khorasan | 1.6 | (1.3–2) | 0.6 | (28.5–0.8) | −62.5 | 2.5 | (2.2–2.9) | 1.7 | (28.5–1.9) | −32.0 | 1.6 | (1.4–1.8) | 6.3 | (28.4–7.3) | 293.8 | 2.0 | (1.7–2.4) | 3.4 | (28.8–4.1) | 70.0 | 6.9 | (6.1–7.9) | 3.1 | (28.7–3.6) | −55.1 | 1.5 | (1.3–1.6) | 1.5 | (28.3–1.7) | 0.0 |
South Khorasan | 1.7 | (1.4–2.1) | 0.6 | (29.5–0.8) | −64.7 | 3.6 | (3.2–4) | 2.8 | (29.5–3.2) | −22.2 | 1.7 | (1.6–1.9) | 7.3 | (29.4–8.3) | 329.4 | 2.7 | (2.3–3.1) | 5.0 | (29.2–6) | 85.2 | 7.5 | (6.6–8.5) | 3.5 | (29.3–4) | −53.3 | 1.8 | (1.6–2) | 2.1 | (29.8–2.3) | 16.7 |
Alborz | 2.8 | (2.2–3.5) | 1.0 | (30.8–1.3) | −64.3 | 4.8 | (4.2–5.6) | 4.3 | (30.7–4.9) | −10.4 | 1.5 | (1.3–1.7) | 7.7 | (30.6–9) | 413.3 | 4.2 | (3.5–5.2) | 8.1 | (30.7–10) | 92.9 | 8.5 | (7.3–9.9) | 4.1 | (30.5–4.8) | −51.8 | 1.5 | (1.3–1.7) | 2.0 | (30.8–2.3) | 33.3 |
Iran | 2.2 | (1.8–2.7) | 0.8 | (31.7–1) | −63.6 | 3.8 | (3.4–4.2) | 3.1 | (31.7–3.5) | −18.4 | 1.6 | (1.5–1.8) | 7.7 | (31.8–8.8) | 381.3 | 3.2 | (2.7–3.7) | 5.7 | (31.8–6.8) | 78.1 | 7.8 | (6.9–8.9) | 3.7 | (31.2–4.2) | −52.6 | 1.5 | (1.4–1.7) | 1.9 | (31.7–2.1) | 26.7 |