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Table 1 The mortality rate and percent of change by type of the cancers in provinces (2015 and 2030)

From: Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001–2030

  Oesophagus Cancer Colon and rectum Cancer Gallbladder Cancer Pancreas Cancer Stomach Cancer Liver Cancer
province 2015 (95% CI) 2030 (95% CI) %
Change
2015 (95% CI) 2030 (95% CI) %
Change
2015 (95% CI) 2030 (95% CI) %
Change
2015 (95% CI) 2030 (95% CI) %
Change
2015 (95% CI) 2030 (95% CI) %
Change
2015 (95% CI) 2030 (95% CI) %
Change
Markazi 2.2 (1.9–2.7) 0.9 (0.7–1.1) −59.1 4.3 (3.8–4.7) 4.3 (0.8–4.9) 0.0 1.8 (1.6–1.9) 9.1 (0.8–10.4) 405.6 3.3 (2.9–3.8) 7.5 (0.3–8.8) 127.3 8.1 (7.2–9.1) 4.0 (0.5–4.6) −50.6 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 2.3 (0.1–2.6) 35.3
Gilan 1.9 (1.6–2.3) 0.8 (1.7–1) −57.9 3.5 (3.1–3.9) 3.0 (1.7–3.4) −14.3 1.5 (1.4–1.7) 6.8 (1.6–7.7) 353.3 2.8 (2.5–3.3) 5.9 (1.1–6.8) 110.7 7.6 (6.7–8.5) 3.7 (1.3–4.1) −51.3 1.6 (1.5–1.7) 1.9 (1.7–2) 18.8
Mazandaran 1.7 (1.4–2.1) 0.6 (2.5–0.8) −64.7 2.3 (2–2.6) 1.7 (2.4–1.9) −26.1 1.3 (1.1–1.5) 5.4 (2.5–6.5) 315.4 2.0 (1.7–2.5) 3.6 (2.9–4.4) 80.0 6.8 (5.9–7.9) 3.1 (2.7–3.7) −54.4 1.3 (1.1–1.4) 1.4 (2.2–1.6) 7.7
East Azerbaijan 2.1 (1.8–2.6) 0.8 (3.7–0.9) − 61.9 3.3 (3–3.7) 2.2 (3.2–2.5) −33.3 1.6 (1.5–1.8) 7.0 (3.3–7.7) 337.5 2.8 (2.5–3.2) 4.6 (3.4–5.3) 64.3 7.7 (6.9–8.5) 3.5 (3.1–3.9) −54.5 1.4 (1.4–1.6) 1.6 (3.4–1.7) 14.3
West Azerbaijan 2.0 (1.6–2.4) 0.7 (4.6–0.9) −65.0 2.7 (2.4–3) 1.5 (4.3–1.7) −44.4 1.7 (1.5–1.8) 6.9 (4.6–7.9) 305.9 2.3 (2–2.6) 3.3 (4.8–3.9) 43.5 7.3 (6.5–8.1) 3.2 (4.8–3.6) −56.2 1.3 (1.3–1.5) 1.3 (4.2–1.4) 0.0
Kermanshah 2.1 (1.8–2.6) 0.8 (5.6–0.9) −61.9 4.1 (3.7–4.5) 3.0 (5.7–3.3) −26.8 1.9 (1.7–2) 8.7 (5.8–9.7) 357.9 3.2 (2.8–3.6) 5.4 (5.7–6.2) 68.8 7.9 (7.1–8.9) 3.7 (5.3–4.1) −53.2 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 2.0 (5.8–2.1) 17.6
Khuzestan 2.2 (1.9–2.7) 0.8 (6.7–1) −63.6 3.7 (3.3–4.1) 3.3 (6.3–3.7) −10.8 1.7 (1.6–1.9) 8.4 (6.6–9.3) 394.1 3.0 (2.7–3.5) 6.1 (6.3–7) 103.3 7.9 (7–8.8) 3.8 (6.4–4.3) −51.9 1.5 (1.4–1.6) 2.0 (6.9–2.2) 33.3
Fars 2.1 (1.8–2.5) 0.8 (7.6–0.9) −61.9 3.9 (3.6–4.3) 3.7 (7.3–4.1) −5.1 1.7 (1.5–1.8) 8.2 (7.3–9.1) 382.4 3.2 (2.8–3.6) 6.5 (7.6–7.5) 103.1 7.9 (7.1–8.8) 3.8 (7.4–4.3) −51.9 1.6 (1.5–1.8) 2.3 (7.1–2.5) 43.8
Kerman 1.8 (1.5–2.2) 0.6 (8.5–0.7) −66.7 2.8 (2.5–3.1) 1.6 (8.4–1.9) −42.9 1.5 (1.4–1.7) 6.5 (8.6–7.5) 333.3 2.3 (2–2.6) 3.2 (8.6–3.9) 39.1 7.2 (6.4–8.1) 3.1 (8.7–3.6) −56.9 1.4 (1.3–1.6) 1.6 (8.4–1.8) 14.3
Razavi Khorasan 2.2 (1.8–2.6) 0.8 (9.7–1) −63.6 3.7 (3.4–4.1) 3.0 (9.7–3.3) −18.9 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 7.9 (9.2–8.7) 364.7 3.1 (2.7–3.5) 5.6 (9.9–6.4) 80.6 7.8 (7–8.7) 3.7 (9.3–4.1) −52.6 1.5 (1.4–1.7) 1.9 (9.8–2.1) 26.7
Isfahan 2.6 (2.1–3.2) 0.9 (10.7–1.1) −65.4 4.2 (3.7–4.7) 3.6 (10.1–4) −14.3 1.7 (1.5–1.8) 9.0 (10.7–10.4) 429.4 3.6 (3–4.3) 6.5 (10.4–7.9) 80.6 8.2 (7.2–9.4) 3.9 (10.4–4.5) −52.4 1.5 (1.3–1.6) 2.0 (10.8–2.2) 33.3
Sistan and Baluchistan 1.6 (1.3–1.9) 0.5 (11.4–0.7) −68.8 3.5 (3.1–4) 2.1 (11.9–2.5) −40.0 2.1 (1.9–2.4) 9.3 (11.1–10.8) 342.9 2.4 (2–2.9) 3.5 (11.9–4.4) 45.8 7.4 (6.5–8.5) 3.3 (11.8–3.8) −55.4 2.0 (1.8–2.2) 2.1 (11.8–2.3) 5.0
Kurdistan 2.0 (1.7–2.4) 0.8 (12.6–1) −60.0 2.6 (2.4–2.9) 1.4 (12.3–1.6) −46.2 1.7 (1.5–1.9) 6.5 (12.5–7.7) 282.4 2.2 (2–2.6) 3.3 (12.8–3.9) 50.0 7.2 (6.5–8.1) 3.2 (12.8–3.6) −55.6 1.3 (1.2–1.4) 1.1 (12.1–1.3) −15.4
Hamadan 1.9 (1.6–2.2) 0.7 (13.6–0.8) −63.2 3.4 (3.1–3.7) 2.8 (13.5–3.1) −17.6 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 7.7 (13.7–8.6) 352.9 2.6 (2.3–3) 5.1 (13.4–5.9) 96.2 7.5 (6.7–8.4) 3.6 (13.2–4) −52.0 1.6 (1.5–1.7) 2.0 (13.9–2.2) 25.0
Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari 1.9 (1.5–2.2) 0.7 (14.5–0.8) −63.2 3.5 (3.2–3.9) 2.8 (14.5–3.1) −20.0 1.7 (1.6–1.9) 7.9 (14.1–8.8) 364.7 2.7 (2.4–3.1) 4.9 (14.2–5.7) 81.5 7.6 (6.8–8.5) 3.6 (14.1–4) −52.6 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 2.1 (14.9–2.3) 23.5
Lorestan 1.9 (1.6–2.3) 0.7 (15.6–0.8) −63.2 2.7 (2.5–3) 1.5 (15.3–1.6) −44.4 1.6 (1.5–1.7) 6.3 (15.6–7.2) 293.8 2.3 (2–2.6) 3.2 (15.7–3.7) 39.1 7.2 (6.5–8) 3.1 (15.7–3.5) −56.9 1.4 (1.3–1.5) 1.3 (15.2–1.4) −7.1
Ilam 2.0 (1.6–2.3) 0.7 (16.6–0.9) −65.0 3.7 (3.3–4) 3.0 (16.7–3.3) −18.9 1.8 (1.6–1.9) 7.9 (16.2–8.7) 338.9 2.9 (2.5–3.2) 5.4 (16.7–6.2) 86.2 7.7 (6.9–8.6) 3.6 (16.2–4.1) −53.2 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 2.0 (16.9–2.2) 17.6
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer_Ahmad 1.7 (1.4–2) 0.7 (17.6–0.8) − 58.8 2.8 (2.5–3.1) 1.8 (17.6–2.1) −35.7 1.7 (1.5–1.8) 7.0 (17.2–7.9) 311.8 2.2 (1.9–2.6) 3.7 (17.2–4.4) 68.2 7.1 (6.3–8.1) 3.3 (17.9–3.7) −53.5 1.5 (1.4–1.7) 1.5 (17.4–1.7) 0.0
Bushehr 2.1 (1.8–2.5) 0.8 (18.7–1) −61.9 5.4 (4.9–6) 7.1 (18.3–8.1) 31.5 1.9 (1.7–2) 10.1 (18.4–12.1) 431.6 3.9 (3.4–4.5) 10.5 (18.6–12.8) 169.2 8.6 (7.7–9.6) 4.5 (18.9–5.3) −47.7 2.1 (1.9–2.3) 3.5 (18.1–4) 66.7
Zanjan 1.9 (1.6–2.3) 0.7 (19.6–0.9) −63.2 1.4 (1.3–1.6) 0.5 (19.4–0.6) −64.3 1.2 (1–1.4) 3.8 (19.9–5) 216.7 1.5 (1.2–1.8) 1.7 (19.3–2.2) 13.3 6.3 (5.5–7.2) 2.5 (19.1–3) −60.3 0.9 (0.8–1) 0.6 (19.5–0.7) −33.3
Semnan 2.3 (1.9–2.8) 0.8 (20.7–1) −65.2 3.9 (3.5–4.4) 3.6 (20.2–4.1) −7.7 1.5 (1.3–1.6) 7.1 (20.2–8.1) 373.3 3.4 (2.9–3.9) 6.8 (20.8–8) 100.0 8.0 (7.1–8.9) 3.8 (20.4–4.3) −52.5 1.5 (1.4–1.6) 2.1 (20.9–2.3) 40.0
Yazd 2.5 (2.1–3) 0.9 (21.7–1.1) −64.0 3.9 (3.5–4.3) 3.4 (21.3–3.8) −12.8 1.5 (1.3–1.6) 6.4 (21.6–7.4) 326.7 3.5 (3–4) 6.9 (21.8–8.2) 97.1 8.1 (7.1–9.2) 3.9 (21.4–4.4) −51.9 1.4 (1.3–1.5) 1.8 (21.6–2) 28.6
Hormozgan 1.6 (1.3–2) 0.6 (22.5–0.8) −62.5 4.4 (3.9–4.9) 5.6 (22.8–6.4) 27.3 2.0 (1.8–2.3) 11.3 (22.4–13.5) 465.0 2.9 (2.5–3.5) 7.5 (22.1–9.2) 158.6 7.9 (6.9–9) 4.1 (22.5–4.8) −48.1 2.2 (2–2.4) 3.7 (22.3–4.2) 68.2
Tehran 2.9 (2.3–3.6) 1.0 (23.8–1.2) −65.5 4.7 (4.1–5.4) 3.8 (23.4–4.4) −19.1 1.4 (1.2–1.7) 7.8 (23.9–9) 457.1 4.3 (3.5–5.3) 7.3 (23.1–8.7) 69.8 8.5 (7.2–9.9) 4.0 (23.4–4.6) −52.9 1.4 (1.3–1.6) 2.0 (23.8–2.2) 42.9
Ardabil 2.0 (1.6–2.3) 0.8 (24.6–0.9) −60.0 3.1 (2.8–3.4) 2.1 (24.9–2.3) −32.3 1.7 (1.6–1.8) 6.8 (24.1–7.5) 300.0 2.5 (2.2–2.9) 4.3 (24.8–5) 72.0 7.5 (6.7–8.3) 3.4 (24.3–3.8) −54.7 1.5 (1.4–1.6) 1.5 (24.4–1.6) 0.0
Qom 2.9 (2.3–3.7) 1.0 (25.8–1.2) −65.5 4.0 (3.5–4.7) 3.2 (25.8–3.7) −20.0 1.6 (1.4–1.9) 7.6 (25.6–8.7) 375.0 3.6 (2.9–4.5) 6.5 (25.4–7.9) 80.6 8.3 (7–9.8) 3.9 (25.3–4.5) −53.0 1.3 (1.2–1.5) 1.7 (25.5–1.9) 30.8
Qazvin 2.2 (1.8–2.6) 0.8 (26.7–1) −63.6 3.9 (3.6–4.4) 3.4 (26.3–3.8) −12.8 1.8 (1.7–2) 9.5 (26.3–10.9) 427.8 3.1 (2.7–3.6) 5.9 (26.9–7) 90.3 8.0 (7.1–8.9) 3.8 (26.3–4.4) −52.5 1.6 (1.5–1.8) 2.2 (26.9–2.4) 37.5
Golestan 1.7 (1.4–2) 0.6 (27.5–0.7) −64.7 3.5 (3.1–3.9) 3.3 (27.9–3.8) −5.7 1.7 (1.6–1.9) 8.4 (27.3–9.7) 394.1 2.6 (2.2–3.1) 5.5 (27.5–6.6) 111.5 7.4 (6.5–8.5) 3.6 (27.1–4.2) −51.4 1.8 (1.6–2) 2.5 (27.2–2.8) 38.9
North Khorasan 1.6 (1.3–2) 0.6 (28.5–0.8) −62.5 2.5 (2.2–2.9) 1.7 (28.5–1.9) −32.0 1.6 (1.4–1.8) 6.3 (28.4–7.3) 293.8 2.0 (1.7–2.4) 3.4 (28.8–4.1) 70.0 6.9 (6.1–7.9) 3.1 (28.7–3.6) −55.1 1.5 (1.3–1.6) 1.5 (28.3–1.7) 0.0
South Khorasan 1.7 (1.4–2.1) 0.6 (29.5–0.8) −64.7 3.6 (3.2–4) 2.8 (29.5–3.2) −22.2 1.7 (1.6–1.9) 7.3 (29.4–8.3) 329.4 2.7 (2.3–3.1) 5.0 (29.2–6) 85.2 7.5 (6.6–8.5) 3.5 (29.3–4) −53.3 1.8 (1.6–2) 2.1 (29.8–2.3) 16.7
Alborz 2.8 (2.2–3.5) 1.0 (30.8–1.3) −64.3 4.8 (4.2–5.6) 4.3 (30.7–4.9) −10.4 1.5 (1.3–1.7) 7.7 (30.6–9) 413.3 4.2 (3.5–5.2) 8.1 (30.7–10) 92.9 8.5 (7.3–9.9) 4.1 (30.5–4.8) −51.8 1.5 (1.3–1.7) 2.0 (30.8–2.3) 33.3
Iran 2.2 (1.8–2.7) 0.8 (31.7–1) −63.6 3.8 (3.4–4.2) 3.1 (31.7–3.5) −18.4 1.6 (1.5–1.8) 7.7 (31.8–8.8) 381.3 3.2 (2.7–3.7) 5.7 (31.8–6.8) 78.1 7.8 (6.9–8.9) 3.7 (31.2–4.2) −52.6 1.5 (1.4–1.7) 1.9 (31.7–2.1) 26.7