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Table 1 The mortality rate and percent of change by type of the cancers in provinces (2015 and 2030)

From: Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001–2030

 

Oesophagus Cancer

Colon and rectum Cancer

Gallbladder Cancer

Pancreas Cancer

Stomach Cancer

Liver Cancer

province

2015 (95% CI)

2030 (95% CI)

%

Change

2015 (95% CI)

2030 (95% CI)

%

Change

2015 (95% CI)

2030 (95% CI)

%

Change

2015 (95% CI)

2030 (95% CI)

%

Change

2015 (95% CI)

2030 (95% CI)

%

Change

2015 (95% CI)

2030 (95% CI)

%

Change

Markazi

2.2

(1.9–2.7)

0.9

(0.7–1.1)

−59.1

4.3

(3.8–4.7)

4.3

(0.8–4.9)

0.0

1.8

(1.6–1.9)

9.1

(0.8–10.4)

405.6

3.3

(2.9–3.8)

7.5

(0.3–8.8)

127.3

8.1

(7.2–9.1)

4.0

(0.5–4.6)

−50.6

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

2.3

(0.1–2.6)

35.3

Gilan

1.9

(1.6–2.3)

0.8

(1.7–1)

−57.9

3.5

(3.1–3.9)

3.0

(1.7–3.4)

−14.3

1.5

(1.4–1.7)

6.8

(1.6–7.7)

353.3

2.8

(2.5–3.3)

5.9

(1.1–6.8)

110.7

7.6

(6.7–8.5)

3.7

(1.3–4.1)

−51.3

1.6

(1.5–1.7)

1.9

(1.7–2)

18.8

Mazandaran

1.7

(1.4–2.1)

0.6

(2.5–0.8)

−64.7

2.3

(2–2.6)

1.7

(2.4–1.9)

−26.1

1.3

(1.1–1.5)

5.4

(2.5–6.5)

315.4

2.0

(1.7–2.5)

3.6

(2.9–4.4)

80.0

6.8

(5.9–7.9)

3.1

(2.7–3.7)

−54.4

1.3

(1.1–1.4)

1.4

(2.2–1.6)

7.7

East Azerbaijan

2.1

(1.8–2.6)

0.8

(3.7–0.9)

− 61.9

3.3

(3–3.7)

2.2

(3.2–2.5)

−33.3

1.6

(1.5–1.8)

7.0

(3.3–7.7)

337.5

2.8

(2.5–3.2)

4.6

(3.4–5.3)

64.3

7.7

(6.9–8.5)

3.5

(3.1–3.9)

−54.5

1.4

(1.4–1.6)

1.6

(3.4–1.7)

14.3

West Azerbaijan

2.0

(1.6–2.4)

0.7

(4.6–0.9)

−65.0

2.7

(2.4–3)

1.5

(4.3–1.7)

−44.4

1.7

(1.5–1.8)

6.9

(4.6–7.9)

305.9

2.3

(2–2.6)

3.3

(4.8–3.9)

43.5

7.3

(6.5–8.1)

3.2

(4.8–3.6)

−56.2

1.3

(1.3–1.5)

1.3

(4.2–1.4)

0.0

Kermanshah

2.1

(1.8–2.6)

0.8

(5.6–0.9)

−61.9

4.1

(3.7–4.5)

3.0

(5.7–3.3)

−26.8

1.9

(1.7–2)

8.7

(5.8–9.7)

357.9

3.2

(2.8–3.6)

5.4

(5.7–6.2)

68.8

7.9

(7.1–8.9)

3.7

(5.3–4.1)

−53.2

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

2.0

(5.8–2.1)

17.6

Khuzestan

2.2

(1.9–2.7)

0.8

(6.7–1)

−63.6

3.7

(3.3–4.1)

3.3

(6.3–3.7)

−10.8

1.7

(1.6–1.9)

8.4

(6.6–9.3)

394.1

3.0

(2.7–3.5)

6.1

(6.3–7)

103.3

7.9

(7–8.8)

3.8

(6.4–4.3)

−51.9

1.5

(1.4–1.6)

2.0

(6.9–2.2)

33.3

Fars

2.1

(1.8–2.5)

0.8

(7.6–0.9)

−61.9

3.9

(3.6–4.3)

3.7

(7.3–4.1)

−5.1

1.7

(1.5–1.8)

8.2

(7.3–9.1)

382.4

3.2

(2.8–3.6)

6.5

(7.6–7.5)

103.1

7.9

(7.1–8.8)

3.8

(7.4–4.3)

−51.9

1.6

(1.5–1.8)

2.3

(7.1–2.5)

43.8

Kerman

1.8

(1.5–2.2)

0.6

(8.5–0.7)

−66.7

2.8

(2.5–3.1)

1.6

(8.4–1.9)

−42.9

1.5

(1.4–1.7)

6.5

(8.6–7.5)

333.3

2.3

(2–2.6)

3.2

(8.6–3.9)

39.1

7.2

(6.4–8.1)

3.1

(8.7–3.6)

−56.9

1.4

(1.3–1.6)

1.6

(8.4–1.8)

14.3

Razavi Khorasan

2.2

(1.8–2.6)

0.8

(9.7–1)

−63.6

3.7

(3.4–4.1)

3.0

(9.7–3.3)

−18.9

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

7.9

(9.2–8.7)

364.7

3.1

(2.7–3.5)

5.6

(9.9–6.4)

80.6

7.8

(7–8.7)

3.7

(9.3–4.1)

−52.6

1.5

(1.4–1.7)

1.9

(9.8–2.1)

26.7

Isfahan

2.6

(2.1–3.2)

0.9

(10.7–1.1)

−65.4

4.2

(3.7–4.7)

3.6

(10.1–4)

−14.3

1.7

(1.5–1.8)

9.0

(10.7–10.4)

429.4

3.6

(3–4.3)

6.5

(10.4–7.9)

80.6

8.2

(7.2–9.4)

3.9

(10.4–4.5)

−52.4

1.5

(1.3–1.6)

2.0

(10.8–2.2)

33.3

Sistan and Baluchistan

1.6

(1.3–1.9)

0.5

(11.4–0.7)

−68.8

3.5

(3.1–4)

2.1

(11.9–2.5)

−40.0

2.1

(1.9–2.4)

9.3

(11.1–10.8)

342.9

2.4

(2–2.9)

3.5

(11.9–4.4)

45.8

7.4

(6.5–8.5)

3.3

(11.8–3.8)

−55.4

2.0

(1.8–2.2)

2.1

(11.8–2.3)

5.0

Kurdistan

2.0

(1.7–2.4)

0.8

(12.6–1)

−60.0

2.6

(2.4–2.9)

1.4

(12.3–1.6)

−46.2

1.7

(1.5–1.9)

6.5

(12.5–7.7)

282.4

2.2

(2–2.6)

3.3

(12.8–3.9)

50.0

7.2

(6.5–8.1)

3.2

(12.8–3.6)

−55.6

1.3

(1.2–1.4)

1.1

(12.1–1.3)

−15.4

Hamadan

1.9

(1.6–2.2)

0.7

(13.6–0.8)

−63.2

3.4

(3.1–3.7)

2.8

(13.5–3.1)

−17.6

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

7.7

(13.7–8.6)

352.9

2.6

(2.3–3)

5.1

(13.4–5.9)

96.2

7.5

(6.7–8.4)

3.6

(13.2–4)

−52.0

1.6

(1.5–1.7)

2.0

(13.9–2.2)

25.0

Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari

1.9

(1.5–2.2)

0.7

(14.5–0.8)

−63.2

3.5

(3.2–3.9)

2.8

(14.5–3.1)

−20.0

1.7

(1.6–1.9)

7.9

(14.1–8.8)

364.7

2.7

(2.4–3.1)

4.9

(14.2–5.7)

81.5

7.6

(6.8–8.5)

3.6

(14.1–4)

−52.6

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

2.1

(14.9–2.3)

23.5

Lorestan

1.9

(1.6–2.3)

0.7

(15.6–0.8)

−63.2

2.7

(2.5–3)

1.5

(15.3–1.6)

−44.4

1.6

(1.5–1.7)

6.3

(15.6–7.2)

293.8

2.3

(2–2.6)

3.2

(15.7–3.7)

39.1

7.2

(6.5–8)

3.1

(15.7–3.5)

−56.9

1.4

(1.3–1.5)

1.3

(15.2–1.4)

−7.1

Ilam

2.0

(1.6–2.3)

0.7

(16.6–0.9)

−65.0

3.7

(3.3–4)

3.0

(16.7–3.3)

−18.9

1.8

(1.6–1.9)

7.9

(16.2–8.7)

338.9

2.9

(2.5–3.2)

5.4

(16.7–6.2)

86.2

7.7

(6.9–8.6)

3.6

(16.2–4.1)

−53.2

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

2.0

(16.9–2.2)

17.6

Kohgiluyeh and Boyer_Ahmad

1.7

(1.4–2)

0.7

(17.6–0.8)

− 58.8

2.8

(2.5–3.1)

1.8

(17.6–2.1)

−35.7

1.7

(1.5–1.8)

7.0

(17.2–7.9)

311.8

2.2

(1.9–2.6)

3.7

(17.2–4.4)

68.2

7.1

(6.3–8.1)

3.3

(17.9–3.7)

−53.5

1.5

(1.4–1.7)

1.5

(17.4–1.7)

0.0

Bushehr

2.1

(1.8–2.5)

0.8

(18.7–1)

−61.9

5.4

(4.9–6)

7.1

(18.3–8.1)

31.5

1.9

(1.7–2)

10.1

(18.4–12.1)

431.6

3.9

(3.4–4.5)

10.5

(18.6–12.8)

169.2

8.6

(7.7–9.6)

4.5

(18.9–5.3)

−47.7

2.1

(1.9–2.3)

3.5

(18.1–4)

66.7

Zanjan

1.9

(1.6–2.3)

0.7

(19.6–0.9)

−63.2

1.4

(1.3–1.6)

0.5

(19.4–0.6)

−64.3

1.2

(1–1.4)

3.8

(19.9–5)

216.7

1.5

(1.2–1.8)

1.7

(19.3–2.2)

13.3

6.3

(5.5–7.2)

2.5

(19.1–3)

−60.3

0.9

(0.8–1)

0.6

(19.5–0.7)

−33.3

Semnan

2.3

(1.9–2.8)

0.8

(20.7–1)

−65.2

3.9

(3.5–4.4)

3.6

(20.2–4.1)

−7.7

1.5

(1.3–1.6)

7.1

(20.2–8.1)

373.3

3.4

(2.9–3.9)

6.8

(20.8–8)

100.0

8.0

(7.1–8.9)

3.8

(20.4–4.3)

−52.5

1.5

(1.4–1.6)

2.1

(20.9–2.3)

40.0

Yazd

2.5

(2.1–3)

0.9

(21.7–1.1)

−64.0

3.9

(3.5–4.3)

3.4

(21.3–3.8)

−12.8

1.5

(1.3–1.6)

6.4

(21.6–7.4)

326.7

3.5

(3–4)

6.9

(21.8–8.2)

97.1

8.1

(7.1–9.2)

3.9

(21.4–4.4)

−51.9

1.4

(1.3–1.5)

1.8

(21.6–2)

28.6

Hormozgan

1.6

(1.3–2)

0.6

(22.5–0.8)

−62.5

4.4

(3.9–4.9)

5.6

(22.8–6.4)

27.3

2.0

(1.8–2.3)

11.3

(22.4–13.5)

465.0

2.9

(2.5–3.5)

7.5

(22.1–9.2)

158.6

7.9

(6.9–9)

4.1

(22.5–4.8)

−48.1

2.2

(2–2.4)

3.7

(22.3–4.2)

68.2

Tehran

2.9

(2.3–3.6)

1.0

(23.8–1.2)

−65.5

4.7

(4.1–5.4)

3.8

(23.4–4.4)

−19.1

1.4

(1.2–1.7)

7.8

(23.9–9)

457.1

4.3

(3.5–5.3)

7.3

(23.1–8.7)

69.8

8.5

(7.2–9.9)

4.0

(23.4–4.6)

−52.9

1.4

(1.3–1.6)

2.0

(23.8–2.2)

42.9

Ardabil

2.0

(1.6–2.3)

0.8

(24.6–0.9)

−60.0

3.1

(2.8–3.4)

2.1

(24.9–2.3)

−32.3

1.7

(1.6–1.8)

6.8

(24.1–7.5)

300.0

2.5

(2.2–2.9)

4.3

(24.8–5)

72.0

7.5

(6.7–8.3)

3.4

(24.3–3.8)

−54.7

1.5

(1.4–1.6)

1.5

(24.4–1.6)

0.0

Qom

2.9

(2.3–3.7)

1.0

(25.8–1.2)

−65.5

4.0

(3.5–4.7)

3.2

(25.8–3.7)

−20.0

1.6

(1.4–1.9)

7.6

(25.6–8.7)

375.0

3.6

(2.9–4.5)

6.5

(25.4–7.9)

80.6

8.3

(7–9.8)

3.9

(25.3–4.5)

−53.0

1.3

(1.2–1.5)

1.7

(25.5–1.9)

30.8

Qazvin

2.2

(1.8–2.6)

0.8

(26.7–1)

−63.6

3.9

(3.6–4.4)

3.4

(26.3–3.8)

−12.8

1.8

(1.7–2)

9.5

(26.3–10.9)

427.8

3.1

(2.7–3.6)

5.9

(26.9–7)

90.3

8.0

(7.1–8.9)

3.8

(26.3–4.4)

−52.5

1.6

(1.5–1.8)

2.2

(26.9–2.4)

37.5

Golestan

1.7

(1.4–2)

0.6

(27.5–0.7)

−64.7

3.5

(3.1–3.9)

3.3

(27.9–3.8)

−5.7

1.7

(1.6–1.9)

8.4

(27.3–9.7)

394.1

2.6

(2.2–3.1)

5.5

(27.5–6.6)

111.5

7.4

(6.5–8.5)

3.6

(27.1–4.2)

−51.4

1.8

(1.6–2)

2.5

(27.2–2.8)

38.9

North Khorasan

1.6

(1.3–2)

0.6

(28.5–0.8)

−62.5

2.5

(2.2–2.9)

1.7

(28.5–1.9)

−32.0

1.6

(1.4–1.8)

6.3

(28.4–7.3)

293.8

2.0

(1.7–2.4)

3.4

(28.8–4.1)

70.0

6.9

(6.1–7.9)

3.1

(28.7–3.6)

−55.1

1.5

(1.3–1.6)

1.5

(28.3–1.7)

0.0

South Khorasan

1.7

(1.4–2.1)

0.6

(29.5–0.8)

−64.7

3.6

(3.2–4)

2.8

(29.5–3.2)

−22.2

1.7

(1.6–1.9)

7.3

(29.4–8.3)

329.4

2.7

(2.3–3.1)

5.0

(29.2–6)

85.2

7.5

(6.6–8.5)

3.5

(29.3–4)

−53.3

1.8

(1.6–2)

2.1

(29.8–2.3)

16.7

Alborz

2.8

(2.2–3.5)

1.0

(30.8–1.3)

−64.3

4.8

(4.2–5.6)

4.3

(30.7–4.9)

−10.4

1.5

(1.3–1.7)

7.7

(30.6–9)

413.3

4.2

(3.5–5.2)

8.1

(30.7–10)

92.9

8.5

(7.3–9.9)

4.1

(30.5–4.8)

−51.8

1.5

(1.3–1.7)

2.0

(30.8–2.3)

33.3

Iran

2.2

(1.8–2.7)

0.8

(31.7–1)

−63.6

3.8

(3.4–4.2)

3.1

(31.7–3.5)

−18.4

1.6

(1.5–1.8)

7.7

(31.8–8.8)

381.3

3.2

(2.7–3.7)

5.7

(31.8–6.8)

78.1

7.8

(6.9–8.9)

3.7

(31.2–4.2)

−52.6

1.5

(1.4–1.7)

1.9

(31.7–2.1)

26.7