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Table 3 Multivariate predictors of ACN using the model fitted to the derivation (Phase I) cohort. The predictive score derived ranged from −4 to 24 points (Final model: C-Statistic = 0.865; Brier Score = 0.10; Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value = 0.86)

From: Prediction of advanced colonic neoplasm in symptomatic patients: a scoring system to prioritize colonoscopy (COLONOFIT study)

Risk Factor

OR

Q 2.5

Q 97.5

Points

Age 40–50 years

2.26

0.52

10.05

3

Age 50–60 years

7.58

2.02

28.56

8

Age > 60 years

11.88

3.27

43.13

10

Colonoscopy (in the previous 5 years) (Yes)

0.36

0.2

0.65

−4

Smoking (Yes)

1.49

1.01

2.27

2

IF MAXFIT [> 4–11]

 NSAMPLES> 4

1.72

1.04

2.83

2x†

IF MAXFIT > 11

 NSAMPLES> 4

2.89

2.45

3.44

4x†

  1. MAXFIT: maximum f-Hb value; NSAMPLES > 4: Number of samples with FIT > 4 μg Hb/g faeces. Discrete variable (0 to 3). Points: Points assigned to each Risk Factor
  2. †Note on 2x/4x: factor to multiply NSAMPLES
  3. How do we interpret the model? Ex: Suppose a 55-year-old man has not smoked or has done a prior colonoscopy and with values of FIT 4, 6 and 10 μg Hb/g faeces. This individual has a MAXFIT value of 10, and 2 samples with FIT > 4 (2 positive samples); therefore its score will be 8 points by age + 2 points per FIT (corresponding to the OR = 1.72) multiplied by 2 positive samples, giving 4 points. Total: 12 points. But if their FIT values were 4, 8, and 12 μg Hb/g faeces, the MAXFIT value of 12 and two positive samples, their score would be 8 points by age + 4 points per FIT (corresponding to the OR = 2.89) multiplied by 2 positive samples, giving 8 points. Total: 16 points