# Table 3 Multivariate predictors of ACN using the model fitted to the derivation (Phase I) cohort. The predictive score derived ranged from −4 to 24 points (Final model: C-Statistic = 0.865; Brier Score = 0.10; Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value = 0.86)

Risk FactorORQ 2.5Q 97.5Points
Age 40–50 years2.260.5210.053
Age 50–60 years7.582.0228.568
Age > 60 years11.883.2743.1310
Colonoscopy (in the previous 5 years) (Yes)0.360.20.65−4
Smoking (Yes)1.491.012.272
IF MAXFIT [> 4–11]
NSAMPLES> 41.721.042.832x†
IF MAXFIT > 11
NSAMPLES> 42.892.453.444x†
1. MAXFIT: maximum f-Hb value; NSAMPLES > 4: Number of samples with FIT > 4 μg Hb/g faeces. Discrete variable (0 to 3). Points: Points assigned to each Risk Factor
2. †Note on 2x/4x: factor to multiply NSAMPLES
3. How do we interpret the model? Ex: Suppose a 55-year-old man has not smoked or has done a prior colonoscopy and with values of FIT 4, 6 and 10 μg Hb/g faeces. This individual has a MAXFIT value of 10, and 2 samples with FIT > 4 (2 positive samples); therefore its score will be 8 points by age + 2 points per FIT (corresponding to the OR = 1.72) multiplied by 2 positive samples, giving 4 points. Total: 12 points. But if their FIT values were 4, 8, and 12 μg Hb/g faeces, the MAXFIT value of 12 and two positive samples, their score would be 8 points by age + 4 points per FIT (corresponding to the OR = 2.89) multiplied by 2 positive samples, giving 8 points. Total: 16 points