Fig. 4

Cumulative probability of making transitions 2 (black) and 3 (red) as a function of follow-up time after treatment. Predictions are for an average patient (male, KPS ≥ 90, age < 66 years, one metastasis, given chemotherapy) with a liver (left panel) or lung (right panel) metastasis, respectively. 95% confidence bands based on 500 Monte Carlo samples are shown as dotted lines. All predictions are averaged over different imputations of the chemotherapy covariate. Note that after some short initial time the probability of transition 3 starts to exceed that of transition 2, indicating a higher probability of death if the metastasis has not been controlled