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Table 2 Model of Natural History Parameters: Annual Average

From: Projected cervical Cancer incidence in Swaziland using three methods and local survey estimates

Parameters calibration Average Min Max Source (Reference no.)
Baseline calibration
 Well to hr-HPV 46.2% 42.8% 49.5% [16]
 HPV16 and/or 18 25.9% 20.0% 33.4%
 CIN1 4.4% 3.0% 5.5
 CIN2 0.6% 0.1% 2.9%
 CIN3 0.6% 0.12% 2.9%
 invasive cervical cancer 0.5 0.5% 0.5%
Progression from well to..
 hr-HPV infection 6.1% 0.0% 14.0% [20, 21]
Progression from hr-HPV (12 types) to.
 to CIN1 6.3% 5.0% 7.9% [20,21,22]
 to CIN2 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% [23]
 to CIN3 1.1% 0.1% 2.0% [23, 24]
Progression from hr-HPV 16/18 to.
 to CIN1 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% [25, 26]
 to CIN2 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% [23]
 to CIN3 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% [23]
Progression from CIN1
 to CIN2 5.2% 1.0% 13.6% [21, 22, 26,27,28,29,30]
 to CIN3 10.1% 0.9% 29.0% [21, 22, 27, 28, 30,31,32,33]
Progression from CIN2
 to CIN3 9.1% 4.2% 14.0% [26,27,28,29, 34, 35]
 to ICC 3.4% 0.2% 10.0% [21, 22, 27, 28, 34,35,36]
 CIN3 to Invasive Cervical Cancer 2.6% 1.1% 4.1% [26,27,28, 37]
 Annual mortality rate for cervical cancera 6.4% 3.1% 60.1% [18, 38]
Regression from hr-HPV (12 types) to.
 with normal smear to well 50.3% 42.0% 58.6% [21, 39]
 with mild smear to well 45.6% 45.6% 45.6% [39]
Regression from hr-HPV to.
 with normal smear to well 37.7% 31.6% 43.8% [24, 39]
 with mild smear to well 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% [39]
Regression from CIN1
 to well 42.9% 9.8% 78.0% [21, 22, 26, 28, 30, 31, 33, 36, 39]
 to hr-HPV 4.9% 2.4% 7.3% [27, 28, 36, 40]
Regression from CIN2
 to well 20.4% 9.4% 38.0% [21, 22, 24, 26,27,28, 35, 36, 41, 42]
 to CIN1 11.4% 9.4% 13.3% [26,27,28, 35, 36, 41, 42]
Regression from CIN3
 to well 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% [27, 37]
 to CIN1 2.3% 1.6% 3.0% [26, 27, 37]
 to CIN2 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% [26]
  1. Hr-HPV: high risk human papillomavirus; CIN: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ICC: Invasive Cervical Cancer
  2. aAverage range of annual mortality rate for cervical cancer