Projected cervical Cancer incidence in Swaziland using three methods and local survey estimates

BMC Cancer

Table 2 Model of Natural History Parameters: Annual Average

Parameters calibration	Average	Min	Max	Source (Reference no.)
Baseline calibration
Well to hr-HPV	46.2%	42.8%	49.5%	[16]
HPV16 and/or 18	25.9%	20.0%	33.4%
CIN1	4.4%	3.0%	5.5
CIN2	0.6%	0.1%	2.9%
CIN3	0.6%	0.12%	2.9%
invasive cervical cancer	0.5	0.5%	0.5%
Progression from well to..
hr-HPV infection	6.1%	0.0%	14.0%	[20, 21]
Progression from hr-HPV (12 types) to.
to CIN1	6.3%	5.0%	7.9%	[20,21,22]
to CIN2	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	[23]
to CIN3	1.1%	0.1%	2.0%	[23, 24]
Progression from hr-HPV 16/18 to.
to CIN1	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	[25, 26]
to CIN2	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	[23]
to CIN3	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	[23]
Progression from CIN1
to CIN2	5.2%	1.0%	13.6%	[21, 22, 26,27,28,29,30]
to CIN3	10.1%	0.9%	29.0%	[21, 22, 27, 28, 30,31,32,33]
Progression from CIN2
to CIN3	9.1%	4.2%	14.0%	[26,27,28,29, 34, 35]
to ICC	3.4%	0.2%	10.0%	[21, 22, 27, 28, 34,35,36]
CIN3 to Invasive Cervical Cancer	2.6%	1.1%	4.1%	[26,27,28, 37]
Annual mortality rate for cervical cancer^a	6.4%	3.1%	60.1%	[18, 38]
Regression from hr-HPV (12 types) to.
with normal smear to well	50.3%	42.0%	58.6%	[21, 39]
with mild smear to well	45.6%	45.6%	45.6%	[39]
Regression from hr-HPV to.
with normal smear to well	37.7%	31.6%	43.8%	[24, 39]
with mild smear to well	21.8%	21.8%	21.8%	[39]
Regression from CIN1
to well	42.9%	9.8%	78.0%	[21, 22, 26, 28, 30, 31, 33, 36, 39]
to hr-HPV	4.9%	2.4%	7.3%	[27, 28, 36, 40]
Regression from CIN2
to well	20.4%	9.4%	38.0%	[21, 22, 24, 26,27,28, 35, 36, 41, 42]
to CIN1	11.4%	9.4%	13.3%	[26,27,28, 35, 36, 41, 42]
Regression from CIN3
to well	3.9%	3.9%	3.9%	[27, 37]
to CIN1	2.3%	1.6%	3.0%	[26, 27, 37]
to CIN2	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	[26]

Hr-HPV: high risk human papillomavirus; CIN: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ICC: Invasive Cervical Cancer
^aAverage range of annual mortality rate for cervical cancer

ISSN: 1471-2407