Table 3 Natural history parameters of the ASCCA model

(A1-A3)

 Age 20–39

 Age 40–49

 Age 50–54

 Age 55–59

 Age 60–64

 Age 65–69

 Age 70–74

 Age 75–90

(A1-A3)

 Incidence factor

(A2,A3)

 Standard deviation

(A1,A3-A5)

 Diminutive to small adenoma

 Small to large adenoma

(A1,A3)

 Small to diminutive adenoma

 Large to small adenoma

(A1,A3)

 Diminutive adenoma

 Small adenoma

 Large adenoma

(A1,A3)

 Diminutive adenoma

 Small adenoma

 Large adenoma

Progression from AA to CRC^b

Shape

Scale

(A6)

 Men

2^a

29^a

 Women

2^a

27^a

Serrated lesion incidence men (No serrated lesion to small serrated lesion)

SSA

HP

(A1,A3)

 Age 20–25

0.0001

0.001

 Age 25–29

0.0001

0.001

 Age 30–34

0.0001

0.002

 Age 35–39

0.0001

0.004

 Age 40–44

0.0006

0.007

 Age 45–49

0.0015

0.010

 Age 50–54

0.0016

0.010

 Age 55–59

0.0014

0.006

 Age 60–64

0.0008

0.004

 Age 65–69

0.0008

0.004

 Age 70–74

0.0007

0.002

 Age 75–79

0.0006

0.002

 Age 80–84

0.0005

0.002

 Age 85–90

0.0004

0.002

 Incidence factor SSA

(A1,A3)

 Incidence factor HP

(A1,A3)

 Standard deviation

(A1,A3)

 Small to large serrated lesion

(A1,A3)

 Small HP to no serrated lesion

 Large HP to small HP

Progression to CRC

(A6)

CRC

Dwell time in years

Stage distribution detected CRC

(A7,A8)

 Stage 1

2.5^a

0.19^a

 Stage 2

2.0^a

0.31^a

 Stage 3

1.5^a

0.49^a

 Stage 4

1.0^a

0.01^a