Table 1 Base Case Value and Range of Transition Probabilities

Background mortality

Age-specific³¹

–

 Median survival of decompensated cirrhotic patients (months)^{36,37, ߌ}

1.80–6.00

  Derived monthly mortality of decompensated cirrhotic patients (%)

19.00

10.91–31.96

 Median survival after TACE (months)^{16–19, 38–40, ߌ}

4.70–9.50

  Derived monthly mortality rate after TACE (%)

11.50

7.04–13.71

 Time to progression after TACE (months) ^{41,42, ߌ}

3.20

1.90–3.20

  Derived monthly tumor progression rate after TACE (%)

19.46

19.46–30.57

 Monthly decompensation rate after TACE (%)^a

2.40

1.30–3.50

 Median survival after taking sorafenib in full dose (months)^{4,39,42, 44,45,46, ߌ}

9.70

3.30–9.70

  Derived monthly mortality rate after taking sorafenib in full dose (%)

6.90

6.90–18.95

 Time to progression afrer taking sorafenib in full dose (months) ^{4,42,44,45, ߌ}

4.90

2.70–4.90

  Derived monthly tumor progression rate after taking sorafenib in full dose (%)

13.19

11.84–22.64

 Median survival after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (months) ^{6–8, ߌ}

7.80–15.0

  Derived montly mortality rate after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (%)

6.50

4.52–8.50

 Time to progression after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (months) ^{8, ߌ}

9.20

6.40–12.0

  Derived monthly tumor progression rate after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (%)

7.26

5.61–10.26

 Monthly decompensation rate after taking sorafenib in full dose or adjusted dose^b

0.90

0.60–1.40

 Median survival after TACE (months) ^{36,37,43, ߌ}

1.80–6.90

  Derived monthly mortality rate after TACE (%)

11.20

9.43–31.96

 Median survival after taking sorafenib in full dose or adjusted dose (months) ^{46,47, ߌ}

4.60

2.70–6.60

  Derived monthly mortality rate after taking sorafenib in full dose or adjusted dose (%)

#13.99

9.97–22.64