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Table 1 Base Case Value and Range of Transition Probabilities

From: Sorafenib versus Transarterial chemoembolization for advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Variables Base-case value Range
Background mortality Age-specific31
 Median survival of decompensated cirrhotic patients (months)36,37, ߌ   1.80–6.00
  Derived monthly mortality of decompensated cirrhotic patients (%) 19.00 10.91–31.96
Rates in patients with compensated cirrhosis and advanced HCC
 Median survival after TACE (months)16–19, 38–40, ߌ   4.70–9.50
  Derived monthly mortality rate after TACE (%) 11.50 7.04–13.71
 Time to progression after TACE (months) 41,42, ߌ 3.20 1.90–3.20
  Derived monthly tumor progression rate after TACE (%) 19.46 19.46–30.57
 Monthly decompensation rate after TACE (%)a 2.40 1.30–3.50
 Median survival after taking sorafenib in full dose (months)4,39,42, 44,45,46, ߌ 9.70 3.30–9.70
  Derived monthly mortality rate after taking sorafenib in full dose (%) 6.90 6.90–18.95
 Time to progression afrer taking sorafenib in full dose (months) 4,42,44,45, ߌ 4.90 2.70–4.90
  Derived monthly tumor progression rate after taking sorafenib in full dose (%) 13.19 11.84–22.64
 Median survival after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (months) 6–8, ߌ   7.80–15.0
  Derived montly mortality rate after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (%) 6.50 4.52–8.50
 Time to progression after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (months) 8, ߌ 9.20 6.40–12.0
  Derived monthly tumor progression rate after taking sorafenib in adjusted dose (%) 7.26 5.61–10.26
 Monthly decompensation rate after taking sorafenib in full dose or adjusted doseb 0.90 0.60–1.40
Rates in patients with compensated cirrhosis and progressive HCC
 Median survival after TACE (months) 36,37,43, ߌ   1.80–6.90
  Derived monthly mortality rate after TACE (%) 11.20 9.43–31.96
 Median survival after taking sorafenib in full dose or adjusted dose (months) 46,47, ߌ 4.60 2.70–6.60
  Derived monthly mortality rate after taking sorafenib in full dose or adjusted dose (%) #13.99 9.97–22.64
  1. #In this model, we assumed that the mortalities of progressive HCC patients and the decompensation rate after full-dose or dose-adjusted sorafenib treatment were the same. More details could be seen in the Materials and Methods
  2. ß refer to additional file Tables for detailed reference lists and original probabilities
  3. Πall probabilities were transformed into monthly rate. Detailed transformation methods were reported in the notes of corresponding additional file Tables
  4. athe data were obtained from the large HCC database of South China (http://hcc.medidata.cn/)