Cost-effectiveness of response evaluation after chemoradiation in patients with advanced oropharyngeal cancer using 18F–FDG-PET-CT and/or diffusion-weighted MRI

Table 3 Expected proportion of correctly classified patients, expected costs per patient and proportion of unnecessary EUA indications per strategy

Strategy	Expected proportion of correctly classified patients	Expected costs	Costs per true-positive case	Proportion of unnecessary EUA indications
Base-case analysis
EUA	0.96	468	7175	0.89
PET-CT	0.94	1177	24,058	0.65
DW-MRI	0.93	297	7588	0.40
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI	0.96	1395	21,387	0.38
Test characteristics based on the literature
PET-CT	0.94	1160	22,264	0.56
DW-MRI	0.95	350	6025	0.56
Sensitivity +10%
EUA	0.97	468	6150	0.89
PET-CT	0.96	1207	18,352	0.60
DW-MRI	0.94	302	6615	0.36
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI ^a	0.96	1395	21,387	0.38
Specificity +10%
EUA	0.96	468	7175	0.89
PET-CT	0.94	1135	23,205	0.44
DW-MRI	0.93	277	7068	0
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI	0.96	1364	20,919	0
Sensitivity −10%
EUA	0.95	468	8610	0.89
PET-CT	0.93	1172	27,639	0.68
DW-MRI	0.92	292	8950	0.44
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI	0.95	1390	23,677	0.40
Specificity −10%
EUA	0.87	468	7175	0.89
PET-CT	0.94	1218	24,910	0.75
DW-MRI	0.93	339	8654	0.67
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI	0.96	1437	22,027	0.59
EUA followed by additional tests
EUA	0.96	574	8799	0.89
PET-CT	0.94	1189	24,304	0.65
DW-MRI	0.93	351	8966	0.40
Increasing the prevalence of residual disease
EUA	0.94	9834	5199	0.85
PET-CT	0.92	10,554	17,599	0.56
DW-MRI	0.90	9673	5696	0.32
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI	0.94	10,778	15,697	0.29
Decreasing the prevalence of residual disease
EUA	0.98	7290	15,598	0.95
PET-CT	0.97	7982	51,592	0.81
DW-MRI	0.97	7103	15,655	0.61
Combined PET-CT and DW-MRI	0.98	8191	45,645	0.58

ISSN: 1471-2407