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Table 4 Observed and predicted 5-year overall survival from therapy calculator, stratified by patients’ characteristics

From: Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia

 

N

Observed death in 5 years

Predicted death in 5 years

Mortality Ratio (95 % CI)

Observed 5-year survival (%)(std err)

Predicted 5-year survival (median) (%)

Absolute difference (%) (95 % CI)

Overall

1538

286

173

1.65(1.47,1.86)

81.4 (0.010)

89.8

8.4(6.4,10.4)

Ethnicity

 Chinese

1052

167

113

1.48(1.26,1.72)

84.1 (0.011)

90.4

6.3(4.1,8.5)

 Malay

264

62

30

2.07(1.58,2.65)

76.5 (0.026)

89.4

12.9(7.8,18.0)

 Indian

212

54

29

1.86(1.40,2.43)

74.5 (0.030)

87.2

12.7(6.8,18.6)

 Other

10

3

1

3.00(0.62,8.77)

70.0 (0.145)

88.2

18.2(−10.2,46.6)

Period of diagnosis

 1990–1994

95

39

14

2.79(1.98,3.81)

58.9 (0.05)

86.8

27.9 (18.1,37.7)

 1995–1999

374

93

40

2.33(1.88,2.85)

75.1 (0.022)

90.9

15.8 (11.5,20.1)

 2000–2003

568

91

63

1.44(1.16,1.77)

84.0 (0.015)

89.7

5.7 (2.8,8.6)

 2004–2007

501

63

56

1.13(0.86,1.44)

87.4 (0.015)

90.2

2.8 (−0.1,5.7)

Age at diagnosis

 0–39

205

55

17

3.24(2.44,4.21)

73.2 (0.031)

92.6

19.4(13.3,25.5)

 40–49

515

74

41

1.80(1.42,2.27)

85.6 (0.015)

92.9

7.3 (4.4,10.2)

 50–59

449

86

50

1.72(1.38,2.12)

80.8 (0.019)

89.4

8.6 (4.9,12.3)

 60–69

271

43

40

1.08(0.78,1.45)

84.1 (0.022)

86.1

2.0 (−2.3,6.3)

 70+

98

28

24

1.17(0.78,1.69)

71.4 (0.046)

77.4

6.0 (−3.0,15.0)

Tumor size (mm)

 0–20

547

51

39

1.31(0.97,1.72)

90.7 (0.012)

94.2

3.5 (1.1,5.9)

 21–50

813

170

102

1.67(1.43,1.94)

79.1 (0.014)

88.5

9.4 (6.7,12.1)

 51+

178

65

32

2.03(1.57,2.59)

63.5 (0.036)

82.8

19.3 (12.2,26.4)

Number of positive nodes

 0

806

72

70

1.03(0.80,1.30)

91.1 (0.010)

92.4

1.3(−0.7,3.3)

 1–3

389

83

46

1.80(1.44,2.24)

78.7 (0.021)

89.4

10.7(6.6,14.8)

 4–9

192

64

30

2.13(1.64,2.72)

66.7 (0.034)

85.8

19.1(12.4,25.8)

 10+

123

61

23

2.65(2.03,3.41)

50.4 (0.045)

82.3

31.9(23.1,40.7)

 Unknown

28

6

4

1.50(0.55,3.26)

78.6 (0.078)

90.6

12.0 (−3.3,27.3)

ER status

 Negative

528

146

73

2.00(1.69,2.35)

72.3 (0.019)

87.2

14.9(11.2,18.6)

 Positive

850

99

82

1.21(0.98,1.47)

88.4 (0.011)

91.7

3.3 (1.1,5.5)

 Unknown

160

41

18

2.28(1.63,3.09)

74.4 (0.035)

89.8

15.4 (8.5,22.3)

PR status

 Negative

423

106

57

1.86(1.52,2.25)

74.9 (0.021)

87.4

12.5(8.4,16.6)

 Positive

586

73

58

1.26(0.99,1.58)

87.5 (0.014)

91.6

4.1 (1.4,6.8)

 Unknown

529

107

58

1.84(1.51,2.23)

79.8 (0.017)

90.2

10.4 (7.1,13.7)

Her2 status

 Negative

665

78

68

1.15(0.91,1.43)

88.3 (0.012)

91.1

2.8 (0.4,5.2)

 Equivocal

35

7

4

1.75(0.70,3.61)

80.0 (0.068)

89.9

9.9 (−3.4,23.2)

 Positive

418

84

53

1.58(1.26,1.96)

79.9 (0.020)

87.9

8.0 (4.1,11.9)

 Unknown

420

117

48

2.44(2.02,2.92)

72.1 (0.022)

89.7

17.6 (13.3,21.9)

Histology

 Ductal

1346

270

155

1.74(1.54,1.96)

79.9 (0.011)

89.6

9.7 (7.5,11.9)

 Lobular

71

7

7

1.00(0.40,2.06)

90.1 (0.035)

91.0

0.9 (−6.0,7.8)

 Mucinous

58

1

4

0.25(0.01,1.39)

98.3 (0.017)

96.0

−2.3 (−5.6,1.0)

 Others

63

8

7

1.14(0.49,2.25)

88.9 (0.040)

89.7

0.8 (−7.0,8.6)

Grade

 1

161

8

11

0.73(0.31,1.43)

95.0 (0.017)

95.6

0.6 (−2.7,3.9)

 2

661

111

71

1.56(1.29,1.88)

83.2 (0.015)

90.5

7.3 (4.4,10.2)

 3

433

119

59

2.02(1.67,2.41)

72.5 (0.021)

87.7

15.2 (11.1,19.3)

 Unknown

283

48

32

1.50(1.11,1.99)

83.0 (0.022)

89.8

6.8 (2.5,11.1)

Chemo-therapy

No chemo-therapy

440

58

53

1.09(0.83,1.41)

86.8 (0.016)

90.4

3.6 (0.5,6.7)

 1st Gen

162

49

21

2.33(1.73,3.08)

69.8 (0.036)

88.1

18.3 (11.2,25.4)

 2nd Gen

915

174

97

1.79(1.54,2.08)

81.0 (0.013)

90.0

9.0 (6.5,11.5)

 3rd Gen

21

5

2

2.50(0.81,5.83)

76.2 (0.093)

90.8

14.6 (−3.6,32.8)

Hormone-therapy

 No

398

108

51

2.12(1.74,2.56)

72.9 (0.022)

87.7

14.8 (10.5,19.1)

 Yes

1140

178

122

1.46(1.25,1.69)

84.4 (0.011)

90.8

6.4 (4.2,8.6)

  1. Numbers marked in bold indicate statistically significant difference at the 95% confidence level