Prognostic survival model for people diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma

BMC Cancer

Table 5 Predicted 10-year survival percentages for twelve hypothetical melanoma patients using the MSI, including comparisons with the AJCC Melanoma Patient Outcome Prediction Tool (MPOPT) ^a

Characteristic							Estimated survival (%) after ten years
	Age	Thick (mm)	Site	Ulceration	Positive lymph nodes	Mets	MSI	MPOPT^a
1.	35	0.45	Back	No	No	No	98.8 [99–99]	97.5 [97–99]
2.	55	0.45	Back	No	No	No	98.3 [98–99]	97.5 [97–99]
3.	55	1.00	Back	No	No	No	91.7 [91–93]	90.0 [88–92]
4.	75	1.00	Back	No	No	No	89.4 [88–91]	82.8 [78–88]
5.	55	1.45	Back	No	No	No	86.2 [85–88]	83.7 [82–86]
6.	75	1.45	Back	No	No	No	83.0 [81–85]	69.6 [63–77]
7.	75	2.45	Back	No	No	No	74.8 [72–77]	59.6 [51–69]
8.	75	2.45	Back	Yes	No	No	61.4 [58–64]	42.0 [33–54]
9.	75	4.45	Scalp	Yes	No	No	38.9 [34–44]	35.2 [27–47]
10.	85	4.45	Scalp	Yes	No	No	36.3 [31-42]	35.2 [27–47]
11.	75	4.45	Scalp	Yes	Yes	No	14.5 [10–20]	29.1 [22–39]
12.	75	4.45	Scalp	Yes	Yes	Yes	1.7 [1–3]	15.9 [6–44]

Notes: ^aFor comparison with the MPOPT (http://www.melanomaprognosis.org), Scalp and Back were categories as “Axial”, and positive lymph nodes or metastasis were both considered indicative of “Regional metastasis).

ISSN: 1471-2407