Table 2 Scenario results produced by the proposed model, with 95% confidence intervals (CI)
| Â | Third-line treatment-eligible GIST* population prevalence per 100000 persons (95% CI) | Probability that third-line treatment-eligible GIST population is below 2 per 100000 persons | Absolute number third-line treatment-eligible GIST population (95% CI) | Total GIST population prevalence per 100000 persons (95% CI) | Absolute number total GIST population (95% CI) | Absolute number of GIST patients on imatinib (95% CI) | Absolute number of GIST patients on sunitinib (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base-case Scenario GIST Incidence: 1.053/100000 person-years (p-y) Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival: 0.77 yrs | 0.96 (0.69 – 1.29) | 99.9% | 598 (432 – 804) | 15.04 (11.2 – 19.8) | 9365 (6953 – 12325) | 1422 (838 – 2368) | 599 (435 – 789) |
Alternative Scenario 1 GIST Incidence: 1.5/100000 p-y Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival: 0.77 yrs | 1.37 (1.06 – 1.73) | 99.6% | 851 (662 – 1080) | 21.9 (13.9 – 31.7) | 13364 (10697 – 16383) | 2020 (1,252 – 3,258) | 855 (670 – 1067) |
Alternative Scenario 2 GIST Incidence: 1.053/100000 p-y Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival: 1.5 yrs | 1.53 (1.00 – 2.29) | 90.6% | 954 (622 – 1428) | 15.6 (11.6 – 20.3) | 9699 (7227 – 12633) | 1410 (832 – 2338) | 602 (437 – 802) |
Alternative Scenario 3 GIST Incidence: 1.5/100000 p-y Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival 1.5 yrs | 2.18 (1.50 – 3.18) | 37.9% | 1357 (933 – 1984) | 22.3 (17.7 – 27.4) | 13886 (1068 – 17069) | 2020 (1259 – 3282) | 854 (674 – 1061) |