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Table 4 Absolute 5-year risk (%) of developing melanoma by age at diagnosis and region of residence, for various risk profiles

From: Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid

  Women Men
  20 yrs 40 yrs 60 yrs 80 yrs 20 yrs 40 yrs 60 yrs 80 yrs
  High Risk: RR = 189.38 (fair skin, 3 or more large moles, close family with large moles, personal history of NMSC) High Risk: RR = 27.19 (age < =50, outdoor occupation < =18 yrs, 5 moles > =5 mm on right arm, born in NZ, history of NMSC); RR = 70.31 (age > 50, outdoor occupation < =18 yrs, 5 moles > =5 mm on right arm, born in NZ, history of NMSC)
North 1.36 5.41 7.9 13.67 0.15 0.76 7.42 12.15
Midland 2.28 6.19 11.37 14.52 0.24 1.01 7.94 12.19
Central 0.89 4.97 8.47 13.92 0.17 0.69 5.14 10.17
South 1.47 4.55 7.32 9.69 0.20 0.81 5.42 9.49
  Medium Risk: RR = 12.66 (fair skin, 2 large moles, no close family with large moles, no personal history of NMSC) Medium Risk: RR = 12.25 (age < =50, occupation < =18 yrs indoors & outdoors, 1 mole > =5 mm on right arm, born in NZ, history of NMSC); RR = 17.71 (age > 50, indoor occupation < =18, no moles on right arm, born in NZ, history of NMSC)
North 0.09 0.37 0.55 0.98 0.07 0.34 1.92 3.23
Midland 0.15 0.43 0.8 1.05 0.11 0.46 2.06 3.24
Central 0.06 0.34 0.59 1.00 0.05 0.31 1.32 2.68
South 0.10 0.31 0.51 0.68 0.09 0.36 1.39 2.49
  Low Risk: RR = 1.00 (olive skin, no large moles, don't know if close family with large moles, no personal history of NMSC) Low Risk: RR = 1.00 (age < = 50, indoor occupation < =18 yrs, no large moles, not born in NZ, no personal history of NMSC); RR = 2.59 (age > 50, indoor occupation < =18 yrs, no large moles, not born in NZ, no personal history of NMSC)
North 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.48
Midland 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.30 0.48
Central <0.001 0.03 0.05 0.08 <0.001 0.03 0.19 0.40
South 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.20 0.37
  1. Calculations for the values in bold are shown in Additional file 2: Appendix 3.