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Table 1 Parameters of the model

From: Cost-effectiveness of family history-based colorectal cancer screening in Australia

Variable

Value

Reference

Natural history

 

Age-specific incidence Adenoma <10 mm

50-54

0.24

Bishop et al. (derived from prevalence and incidence data presented in tables 32 and 35)

55-59

0.30

60-64

0.32

65-69

0.27

≥ 70

0.22

Age-specific incidence Adenoma ≥10 mm

50-54

0.07

55-59

0.08

60-64

0.1

65-69

0.16

≥ 70

0.21

CRC Dukes’ A

50-54

0.0012

55-59

0.0022

60-64

0.0033

65-69

0.005

≥ 70

0.0067

CRC Dukes’ B

50-54

0.0005

55-59

0.001

60-64

0.0016

65-69

0.0023

≥ 70

0.0031

CRC Dukes’ C

50-54

0.0005

55-59

0.0008

60-64

0.0013

65-69

0.002

≥ 70

0.0027

CRC Dukes’ D

 

50-54

0.0001

55-59

0.0003

60-64

0.0004

65-69

0.0007

≥ 70

0.0009

Yearly probability of death from CRC by stage

 

Dukes’ A

0.034

 

Dukes’ B

0.051

 

Dukes’ C

0.085

Tran et al.

Dukes’ D

0.282

 

Probability of CRC diagnosis without screening programme

 

Dukes’ A

0.091

Bishop et al. (table 34)

Dukes’ B

0.2948

Dukes’ C

0.7613

Dukes’ D

1

Screening test characteristics

 

iFOBT

  

Sensitivity for CRC

0.479

Bishop et al. (table 36)

Sensitivity for polyps’

0.2119

Bishop et al. (table 36)

Specificity

0.9146

Bishop et al. (table 36)

Screening uptake

40%

NBCSP pilot

Probability of colonoscopy after positive iFOBT

65%

 

Colonoscopy

  

Sensitivity for CRC

0.95

Bishop et al. (table 36)

Sensitivity for polyps

0.85

NHMRC 2005

Specificity

1

Bishop et al. (table 36)

Participation

40%

Assumption

Cost per activity per individual (AU$)

 

iFOBT (invitation + test kit)

$10.00

Bishop et al. (table 40)

iFOBT pathology

$20.00

GP visit and referral

$32.10

Colonoscopy

$1,082.00

Colonoscopy with polypectomy

$1,606.00

Annual CRC treatment costs per individual (AU$)

 

CRC Dukes’ A

$1,716.00

Tran et al.

CRC Dukes’ B

$4,114.00

CRC Dukes’ C

$9,990.50

CRC Dukes’ D

$35,578.00

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