From: Cost-effectiveness of family history-based colorectal cancer screening in Australia
Variable | Value | Reference |
---|---|---|
Natural history | Â | |
Age-specific incidence Adenoma <10Â mm | ||
50-54 | 0.24 | Bishop et al. (derived from prevalence and incidence data presented in tables 32 and 35) |
55-59 | 0.30 | |
60-64 | 0.32 | |
65-69 | 0.27 | |
≥ 70 | 0.22 | |
Age-specific incidence Adenoma ≥10 mm | ||
50-54 | 0.07 | |
55-59 | 0.08 | |
60-64 | 0.1 | |
65-69 | 0.16 | |
≥ 70 | 0.21 | |
CRC Dukes’ A | ||
50-54 | 0.0012 | |
55-59 | 0.0022 | |
60-64 | 0.0033 | |
65-69 | 0.005 | |
≥ 70 | 0.0067 | |
CRC Dukes’ B | ||
50-54 | 0.0005 | |
55-59 | 0.001 | |
60-64 | 0.0016 | |
65-69 | 0.0023 | |
≥ 70 | 0.0031 | |
CRC Dukes’ C | ||
50-54 | 0.0005 | |
55-59 | 0.0008 | |
60-64 | 0.0013 | |
65-69 | 0.002 | |
≥ 70 | 0.0027 | |
CRC Dukes’ D |  | |
50-54 | 0.0001 | |
55-59 | 0.0003 | |
60-64 | 0.0004 | |
65-69 | 0.0007 | |
≥ 70 | 0.0009 | |
Yearly probability of death from CRC by stage | Â | |
Dukes’ A | 0.034 |  |
Dukes’ B | 0.051 |  |
Dukes’ C | 0.085 | Tran et al. |
Dukes’ D | 0.282 |  |
Probability of CRC diagnosis without screening programme | Â | |
Dukes’ A | 0.091 | Bishop et al. (table 34) |
Dukes’ B | 0.2948 | |
Dukes’ C | 0.7613 | |
Dukes’ D | 1 | |
Screening test characteristics | Â | |
iFOBT | Â | Â |
Sensitivity for CRC | 0.479 | Bishop et al. (table 36) |
Sensitivity for polyps’ | 0.2119 | Bishop et al. (table 36) |
Specificity | 0.9146 | Bishop et al. (table 36) |
Screening uptake | 40% | NBCSP pilot |
Probability of colonoscopy after positive iFOBT | 65% | Â |
Colonoscopy | Â | Â |
Sensitivity for CRC | 0.95 | Bishop et al. (table 36) |
Sensitivity for polyps | 0.85 | NHMRC 2005 |
Specificity | 1 | Bishop et al. (table 36) |
Participation | 40% | Assumption |
Cost per activity per individual (AU$) | Â | |
iFOBT (invitation + test kit) | $10.00 | Bishop et al. (table 40) |
iFOBT pathology | $20.00 | |
GP visit and referral | $32.10 | |
Colonoscopy | $1,082.00 | |
Colonoscopy with polypectomy | $1,606.00 | |
Annual CRC treatment costs per individual (AU$) | Â | |
CRC Dukes’ A | $1,716.00 | Tran et al. |
CRC Dukes’ B | $4,114.00 | |
CRC Dukes’ C | $9,990.50 | |
CRC Dukes’ D | $35,578.00 |  |