Risk prediction by gene signatures.
(A) Heatmap of the pairwise correlations of the predicted risk scores from the gene signatures. The predicted risk scores by Intrinsic and PAM50 are generated by the ROR-S (Risk of Relapse by Subtype along) model. The risk predictions are generally fairly concordant across different signatures, except for Hypoxia that has week correlations with the other signatures. (B) Comparison of 15-year period prediction for Distant Metastasis Free Survival (DMFS) using risk groups identified by published cutoffs in original gene signatures. Survival probabilities associated with the risk groups are shown by Kaplan Meier plot up to 15 years. For most of the signatures, the reported cutoffs were applied to generate risk group assignments. Thresholds for risk groups assignment were modified for 76-gene, GGI and RS using population based strategy. For 76-gene, “good” prognosis is defined as less than 30% percentile of the raw relapse score in ER + group and less than 22% percentile in ER- group . For GGI, the third of the patients with low GGI scores being defined as low-risk and the remaining patients as high-risk . For RS, 27% patients with high unscaled Recurrence Score were assigned as “high-risk” and 51% with low score as “low-risk”, and the remaining 22% of the patients were assigned to the “intermediate-risk” group . For the Intrinsic signature and PAM50, in addition to the survival curves associated with subtype groups, the risk groups defined by the ROR-S model (risk of relapse subtype-only model) are also shown.