Gail model | Chen model | Barlow model | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | Observed cases (O) | Expected cases (E) | E/O | p-value(2) | Expected cases | E/O | p-value(2) | Expected cases | E/O | p-value(2) | ||
Age at first mammogram, y | 50-54 | 5095 | 31 | 42 | 1.35 | 0.009 | 41 | 1.32 | 0.006 | 99 | 3.19 | < 0.001 |
55-59 | 3712 | 34 | 33 | 0.97 | 31 | 0.91 | 97 | 2.85 | ||||
60-64 | 4299 | 30 | 42 | 1.40 | 37 | 1.23 | 128 | 4.27 | ||||
65-69 | 603 | 13 | 7 | 0.54 | 6 | 0.46 | 19 | 1.46 | ||||
Age at menarche, y | <12 | 2555 | 25 | 25 | 1.00 | 0.364 | 21 | 0.84 | 0.552 | 61 | 2.44 | < 0.001 |
12-13 | 5372 | 39 | 50 | 1.28 | 45 | 1.15 | 134 | 3.44 | ||||
> = 14 | 5639 | 43 | 49 | 1.14 | 48 | 1.12 | 144 | 3.35 | ||||
Age at first live birth, y | <20 | 1091 | 9 | 7 | 0.78 | 0.181 | 7 | 0.78 | 0.370 | 24 | 2.67 | < 0.001 |
20-24 | 6393 | 45 | 53 | 1.18 | 50 | 1.11 | 151 | 3.36 | ||||
25-29 | 4200 | 30 | 42 | 1.40 | 38 | 1.27 | 104 | 3.47 | ||||
>29 | 1003 | 14 | 13 | 0.93 | 11 | 0.79 | 32 | 2.29 | ||||
No children | 925 | 10 | 9 | 0.90 | 9 | 0.90 | 30 | 3.00 | ||||
Body mass index | <25 | 3439 | 24 | 32 | 1.33 | 0.200 | 27 | 1.13 | 0.470 | 85 | 3.54 | < 0.001 |
25-29 | 4624 | 32 | 42 | 1.31 | 40 | 1.25 | 118 | 3.69 | ||||
30-34 | 1997 | 19 | 18 | 0.95 | 19 | 1.00 | 53 | 2.79 | ||||
> = 35 | 691 | 5 | 6 | 1.20 | 7 | 1.40 | 19 | 3.80 | ||||
Breast density (BI-RADS)(1) | 1 | 3019 | 21 | 27 | 1.29 | 0.063 | 18 | 0.86 | 0.080 | 37 | 1.76 | < 0.001 |
2 | 5480 | 36 | 49 | 1.36 | 42 | 1.17 | 131 | 3.64 | ||||
3 | 2421 | 29 | 22 | 0.76 | 26 | 0.90 | 81 | 2.79 | ||||
4 | 2140 | 17 | 19 | 1.12 | 29 | 1.71 | 72 | 4.24 | ||||
No. of biopsies | 0 | 13588 | 108 | 123 | 1.14 | - | 113 | 1.05 | - | 339 | 3.14 | - |
> = 1 | 121 | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 4 | - | ||||
Affected first-degree relatives | No | 12949 | 97 | 111 | 1.14 | 0.149 | 105 | 1.08 | 0.605 | 317 | 3.27 | < 0.001 |
Yes | 730 | 10 | 13 | 1.30 | 10 | 1.00 | 23 | 2.30 | ||||
Previous benign breast disease | No | 12712 | 98 | 115 | 1.17 | 0.162 | 105 | 1.07 | 0.754 | 307 | 3.13 | < 0.001 |
Yes | 997 | 10 | 9 | 0.90 | 9 | 0.90 | 36 | 3.60 |