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Table 4 Calibration of the risk models by categories of the risk factors

From: An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

    

Gail model

Chen model

Barlow model

  

N

Observed cases (O)

Expected cases (E)

E/O

p-value(2)

Expected cases

E/O

p-value(2)

Expected cases

E/O

p-value(2)

Age at first mammogram, y

50-54

5095

31

42

1.35

0.009

41

1.32

0.006

99

3.19

< 0.001

55-59

3712

34

33

0.97

 

31

0.91

 

97

2.85

 

60-64

4299

30

42

1.40

 

37

1.23

 

128

4.27

 

65-69

603

13

7

0.54

 

6

0.46

 

19

1.46

 

Age at menarche, y

<12

2555

25

25

1.00

0.364

21

0.84

0.552

61

2.44

< 0.001

12-13

5372

39

50

1.28

 

45

1.15

 

134

3.44

 

> = 14

5639

43

49

1.14

 

48

1.12

 

144

3.35

 

Age at first live birth, y

<20

1091

9

7

0.78

0.181

7

0.78

0.370

24

2.67

< 0.001

20-24

6393

45

53

1.18

 

50

1.11

 

151

3.36

 

25-29

4200

30

42

1.40

 

38

1.27

 

104

3.47

 

>29

1003

14

13

0.93

 

11

0.79

 

32

2.29

 

No children

925

10

9

0.90

 

9

0.90

 

30

3.00

 

Body mass index

<25

3439

24

32

1.33

0.200

27

1.13

0.470

85

3.54

< 0.001

25-29

4624

32

42

1.31

 

40

1.25

 

118

3.69

 

30-34

1997

19

18

0.95

 

19

1.00

 

53

2.79

 

> = 35

691

5

6

1.20

 

7

1.40

 

19

3.80

 

Breast density (BI-RADS)(1)

1

3019

21

27

1.29

0.063

18

0.86

0.080

37

1.76

< 0.001

2

5480

36

49

1.36

 

42

1.17

 

131

3.64

 

3

2421

29

22

0.76

 

26

0.90

 

81

2.79

 

4

2140

17

19

1.12

 

29

1.71

 

72

4.24

 

No. of biopsies

0

13588

108

123

1.14

-

113

1.05

-

339

3.14

-

> = 1

121

0

1

-

 

1

-

 

4

-

 

Affected first-degree relatives

No

12949

97

111

1.14

0.149

105

1.08

0.605

317

3.27

< 0.001

Yes

730

10

13

1.30

 

10

1.00

 

23

2.30

 

Previous benign breast disease

No

12712

98

115

1.17

0.162

105

1.07

0.754

307

3.13

< 0.001

 

Yes

997

10

9

0.90

 

9

0.90

 

36

3.60

 
  1. (1)1: Almost entirely fat, 2: Scattered fibroglandular densities, 3: Heterogeneously dense, 4: Extremely dense.
  2. (2)The p-values shown in the table correspond to the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic. All the p-values for the chi-square test for trend were higher than 0.1.