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Table 4 Calibration of the risk models by categories of the risk factors

From: An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

     Gail model Chen model Barlow model
   N Observed cases (O) Expected cases (E) E/O p-value(2) Expected cases E/O p-value(2) Expected cases E/O p-value(2)
Age at first mammogram, y 50-54 5095 31 42 1.35 0.009 41 1.32 0.006 99 3.19 < 0.001
55-59 3712 34 33 0.97   31 0.91   97 2.85  
60-64 4299 30 42 1.40   37 1.23   128 4.27  
65-69 603 13 7 0.54   6 0.46   19 1.46  
Age at menarche, y <12 2555 25 25 1.00 0.364 21 0.84 0.552 61 2.44 < 0.001
12-13 5372 39 50 1.28   45 1.15   134 3.44  
> = 14 5639 43 49 1.14   48 1.12   144 3.35  
Age at first live birth, y <20 1091 9 7 0.78 0.181 7 0.78 0.370 24 2.67 < 0.001
20-24 6393 45 53 1.18   50 1.11   151 3.36  
25-29 4200 30 42 1.40   38 1.27   104 3.47  
>29 1003 14 13 0.93   11 0.79   32 2.29  
No children 925 10 9 0.90   9 0.90   30 3.00  
Body mass index <25 3439 24 32 1.33 0.200 27 1.13 0.470 85 3.54 < 0.001
25-29 4624 32 42 1.31   40 1.25   118 3.69  
30-34 1997 19 18 0.95   19 1.00   53 2.79  
> = 35 691 5 6 1.20   7 1.40   19 3.80  
Breast density (BI-RADS)(1) 1 3019 21 27 1.29 0.063 18 0.86 0.080 37 1.76 < 0.001
2 5480 36 49 1.36   42 1.17   131 3.64  
3 2421 29 22 0.76   26 0.90   81 2.79  
4 2140 17 19 1.12   29 1.71   72 4.24  
No. of biopsies 0 13588 108 123 1.14 - 113 1.05 - 339 3.14 -
> = 1 121 0 1 -   1 -   4 -  
Affected first-degree relatives No 12949 97 111 1.14 0.149 105 1.08 0.605 317 3.27 < 0.001
Yes 730 10 13 1.30   10 1.00   23 2.30  
Previous benign breast disease No 12712 98 115 1.17 0.162 105 1.07 0.754 307 3.13 < 0.001
  Yes 997 10 9 0.90   9 0.90   36 3.60  
  1. (1)1: Almost entirely fat, 2: Scattered fibroglandular densities, 3: Heterogeneously dense, 4: Extremely dense.
  2. (2)The p-values shown in the table correspond to the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic. All the p-values for the chi-square test for trend were higher than 0.1.