Figure 4

Theoretical global impact of prophylactic HPV vaccination on cervical ADC, SCC and ICC. Panel (a) and panel (b) show future predictions, using 2015 data, of the proportion of new cases and number of new cases, respectively, of ADC (including ASC), SCC and ICC which could theoretically be prevented globally by a HPV vaccine efficacious against HPV-16/18, HPV-16/18/45 or HPV-16/18/45/31/33. Each bar represents the point estimate. The numbers to the right of each bar are the actual point estimates. The error bars represent the corresponding range of estimates calculated using the lower and upper bound limits of the confidence intervals from reported efficacy estimates (96.1% and 95.89% confidence intervals were used for estimates of HPV-16/18 associated vaccine efficacy for Cervarix® and Gardasil®, respectively, due to adjustments for multiplicity. 95% confidence intervals were used for estimates of vaccine efficacy against other HPV types). We assumed 100% vaccine coverage in these calculations.