Predictors in order of entry1 | AUC (95% CI) | Incremental change in AUC2 | P3 | Incremental improvement in sensitivity4 | Incremental improvement in specificity4 | Overall incremental improvement in classification4 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  | NRI (95% CI) | P | NRI (95% CI) | P | NRI (95% CI) | P |
Base model | 0.67 (0.63, 0.72) | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Self-reported model: including only self-reported nevus and phenotype risk factors | |||||||||
MC1R all variants | 0.73 (0.69, 0.77) | 0.058 | <0.001 | 0.12 (0.05, 0.19) | 0.001 | 0.14 (0.06, 0.23) | <0.001 | 0.26 (0.15, 0.37) | <0.001 |
Nevi (none, few, some many) | 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) | 0.038 | 0.001 | 0.14 (0.07, 0.20) | <0.001 | −0.00 (−0.09, 0.08) | 0.93 | 0.13 (0.02, 0.24) | 0.02 |
Non-melanoma skin cancer | 0.78 (0.75, 0.82) | 0.012 | 0.02 | −0.02 (−0.06, 0.01) | 0.2 | 0.05 (0.01, 0.08) | 0.01 | 0.02 (−0.03, 0.07) | 0.4 |
Pigmentation score | 0.79 (0.76, 0.83) | 0.009 | 0.07 | 0.04 (−0.01, 0.08) | 0.1 | 0.02 (−0.04, 0.08) | 0.5 | 0.06 (−0.02, 0.13) | 0.1 |
Sun & sunbed exposure | 0.80 (0.76, 0.83) | 0.004 | 0.4 | 0.02 (−0.02, 0.06) | 0.4 | 0.03 (−0.02, 0.09) | 0.2 | 0.05 (−0.01, 0.12) | 0.1 |
Family history | 0.80 (0.76, 0.83) | 0.001 | 0.7 | 0.00 (−0.02, 0.03) | 0.9 | 0.00 (−0.02, 0.03) | 0.8 | 0.01 (−0.03, 0.04) | 0.7 |
Physician-measured model: including physician-measured nevus and phenotype risk factors where available | |||||||||
Nevi 2+ mm5 | 0.79 (0.75, 0.82) | 0.111 | <0.001 | 0.10 (0.03, 0.17) | 0.008 | 0.29 (0.20, 0.38) | <0.001 | 0.39 (0.28, 0.51) | <0.001 |
MC1R all variants | 0.82 (0.78, 0.85) | 0.031 | 0.002 | 0.05 (−0.01, 0.10) | 0.1 | 0.09 (0.02, 0.15) | 0.007 | 0.13 (0.05, 0.22) | 0.002 |
Non-melanoma skin cancer | 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) | 0.010 | 0.02 | −0.01 (−0.04, 0.02) | 0.4 | 0.03 (0.01, 0.06) | 0.02 | 0.02 (−0.02, 0.06) | 0.3 |
Pigmentation score5 | 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) | 0.003 | 0.5 | 0.01 (−0.03, 0.05) | 0.6 | −0.03 (−0.08, 0.02) | 0.2 | −0.02 (−0.08, 0.04) | 0.5 |
Solar lentigines5 | 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) | 0.004 | 0.3 | 0.03 (−0.01, 0.07) | 0.10 | −0.01 (−0.05, 0.03) | 0.7 | 0.02 (−0.03, 0.08) | 0.4 |
Family history | 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) | <0.001 | 1.0 | 0.00 (−0.01, 0.02) | 0.5 | −0.01 (−0.03, 0.01) | 0.5 | −0.00 (−0.03, 0.02) | 0.8 |