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Table 4 Comparison of the expected cases ( E ) of invasive breast cancer predicted by each respective model, to the observed cases ( O ) in the Singapore Breast Screening Programme (SBSP) cohort by risk factor category

From: Assessing risk of breast cancer in an ethnically South-East Asia population (results of a multiple ethnic groups study)

Risk factors No. of women followed    GAIL-SBSP    S-GAIL-SBSP    E-GAIL-SBSP  
   O E E/O(CI) P E E/O(CI) P E E/O(CI) P
AGEMEN (y)            
 ≥14 18,652 142 148.50 1.05 (0.89 to 1.23) 0.890 139.32 0.98 (0.83 to 1.16) 0.945 165.22 1.16 (0.99 to 1.37) 0.035
 12–13 9,279 89 83.81 0.94 (0.77 to 1.16)   90.61 1.02 (0.83 to 1.25)   109.59 1.23 (1.00 to 1.52)  
 <12 952 10 9.53 0.95 (0.51 to 1.77)   11.87 1.19 (0.64 to 2.21)   14.66 1.47 (0.79 to 2.73)  
NBIOPS            
 0 27,176 218 222.80 1.02 (0.89 to 1.17) 0.629 226.43 1.04 (0.91 to 1.19) 0.129 271.38 1.24 (1.09 to 1.42) 0.003
 1 1,707 23 19.04 0.83 (0.55 to 1.25)   15.37 0.67 (0.44 to 1.01)   18.09 0.79 (0.52 to 1.18)  
NUMREL            
 0 28,143 225 229.50 1.02 (0.90 to 1.16) 0.045 227.71 1.01 (0.89 to 1.15) 0.109 272.98 1.21 (1.06 to 1.38) 0.004
 1 729 14 11.98 0.86 (0.51 to 1.44)   13.67 0.98 (0.58 to 1.65)   16.01 1.14 (0.68 to 1.93)  
 ≥2 11 2 0.36 0.18 (0.04 to 0.71)   0.42 0.21 (0.05 to 0.83)   0.48 0.24 (0.06 to 0.97)  
AGEFLB (y)            
 <20 4,952 26 29.89 1.15 (0.78 to 1.69) 0.900 31.58 1.21 (0.83 to 1.78) 0.750 39.77 1.53 (1.04 to 2.25) 0.038
 20–24 10,840 77 80.61 1.05 (0.84 to 1.31)   81.02 1.05 (0.84 to 1.32)   94.41 1.23 (0.98 to 1.53)  
 25–29 or nulliparous 9,843 97 93.48 0.96 (0.79 to 1.18)   92.61 0.95 (0.78 to 1.16)   112.39 1.16 (0.95 to 1.41)  
 ≥30 3,248 41 37.85 0.92 (0.68 to 1.25)   36.59 0.89 (0.66 to 1.21)   42.90 1.05 (0.77 to 1.42)  
BMI (kg/m2)            
 <23.0 10,237 68 89.31 1.31 (1.04 to 1.67) 0.018 88.34 1.30 (1.02 to 1.65) 0.028 75.94 1.12 (0.88 to 1.42) 0.026
 23.0–27.4 12,225 107 101.99 0.95 (0.79 to 1.15)   102.09 0.95 (0.79 to 1.15)   124.26 1.16 (0.96 to 1.40)  
 ≥27.5 6,411 66 50.45 0.76 (0.60 to 0.970   51.29 0.78 (0.61 to 0.99)   89.21 1.35 (1.06 to 1.72)  
Parity            
 ≥3 20,197 147 156.72 1.07 (0.91 to 1.25) 0.632 157.01 1.07 (0.91 to 1.26) 0.615 178.11 1.21 (1.03 to 1.42) 0.041
 1–2 6,410 68 63.16 0.93 (0.73 to 1.18)   62.80 0.92 (0.73 to 1.17)   78.57 1.16 (0.91 to 1.47)  
 0 2,276 26 21.95 0.84 (0.57 to 1.24)   21.99 0.85 (0.58 to 1.24)   32.78 1.26 (0.86 to 1.85)  
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